Global milk supplies look to tighten in 2019
Christian Fernsby ▼ |
Growth in global milk supplies in 2019 is lower than previously expected, falling from 0.9% to 0.3%.
Article continues below
Pressure on farmer margins in the US has led to lower than normal growth, while the EU 28 is limited by a smaller dairy herd.
In the Southern Hemisphere, low margins are also taking their toll alongside adverse weather.
Overall global milk supplies are forecast to increase by around 0.3%.
With world consumption of fresh dairy products expected to increase by 1.8%, global milk supplies may tighten.
The impact of last year’s drought continued to hang over EU milk production in the first two months of this year.
This led to a fall in milk production compared to last year.
However, strong growth in supplies during March compensated for the disappointing start to the year.
Overall during Q1, EU milk supplies was up by 0.3% (+ 130M litres) compared to last year.
Growth in EU milk production for 2019 is expected to be relatively modest at 0.7%, around 1 billion litres.
However, production growth could be restricted as the size of the EU milking herd has fallen by 1.6% (-374,000 head) on the year due to of higher culling rates.
In the US, growth in milk supplies is expected to slow down.
Historically, US milk production has increased between 1-2% every year.
A prolonged period of lower prices has put farmers under pressure, which has led to higher culling and producer exit rates.
As such, the USDA expect that milk production will only grow marginally this year at 0.5% (+ 500M litres).
In the Southern hemisphere, weather issues have impacted on milk production.
In New Zealand, drought has hampered milk production.
In March, production was down 8% on the year.
It is unlikely that production in 2H 2019 will be able to match the highs of last year, and so it is expected that milk production for 2019 will remain relatively flat.
In Australia, production has been more severally impacted, with a prolonged drought affecting yields and putting strain on farmer margins.
Q1 milk production was down 11% on the year.
Culling rates remain high and many dairy producers are drying cows off early due to feed shortages as the season comes to a close.
Production is expected to fall by 1% in 2019.
Argentinean milk production fell by 8% during Q1 as heat stress affected yields.
Though there has been some recovery in the milk price rising input costs are eroding margins.
Some recovery in production levels is expected in the second half of the year as a good grains harvest will help to ease the pressure on margins, assuming stable weather.
Though there is a high level of uncertainty over where how Argentinean production will progress throughout the year, we expect that there will be a year-on-year decline in the region of around -5%. ■
What to read next
A deep upper-level trough will move onshore over most of the West Coast on Sunday, moving to the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern Rockies by Tuesday.
LatestUnited flight from Chicago to Vegas makes emergency landing in Nebraska
Kerry pleads guilty and agrees to pay $19.228 million in connection with 2018 salmonella outbreak
Brazil sinks rusting old French aircraft carrier in Atlantic
China allowed truck entry on border with Tajikistan
Longest-serving president of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf dies
5.5-magnitude earthquake hits northern Chile
Chile expands emergency as deaths from wildfires rise
Fishing boat capsizes in South Korea, 9 missing
Over 200 evacuated from Vorkutinskaya coal mine in Komi due to smoke
Spain suffers amid severe shortage of drugs
Free travel will be extended to even more of London’s lowest paid transport workers
North Adriatic Hydrogen Valley project receives 25 million in grants
Croatia to pay MOL $235 mln in settlement of arbitration case for INA
€25 million EBRD loan to support new tram line in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
UK and coalition partners announce price caps on Russian oil products
Fiji ends training and exchange agreement with China
France mulls extending nuclear reactors' lifespan
PM: Decisions by Commission for Emergency Situations help Moldova get out of winter with dignity
Denys Shmyhal: We expect duty-free trade with the EU to be extended until the end of 2024
Today We Recommend
Viatel Technology to create 50 Irish tech jobs
Ethiopian Airlines inaugurates second aviation academy campus in Hawassa
Statkraft and INEOS Inovyn sign new long-term green power agreements
Portugal's Parliament approves inquiry into TAP airline
Iberdrola launching new call for master's scholarships for Spain and UK
Exothera appoints Darren Leva as chief business officer
Vesta taps Shimon Steinmetz as CFO
Bruno Ultra Barcelos appointed managing director of Ethypharm UK
Syntach names Patrick NJ Schnegelsberg as new CEO
Chiesi appoints Giuseppe Accogli as new group CEO
U.S. services PMI jumped
Türkiye inflation higher than expected at nearly 58%
West Virginia January revenue surplus continues to show opportunity for tax cuts is now
Indonesia: Inflation decelerates in January
Germany's foreign trade balance sees surplus of 10.0 billion euros in December 2022
Skechers Q4 sales increased 13.5%
Bosch posts sales growth
Cigna income $6.7 billion
Aon Q4 income decreased 24%
ASSA ABLOY Q4 sales increased by 28%
Niger set to monetize massive gas reserves through Saharan natural gas pipeline
Putting the brakes on EV folly that choked the market
Oil discovery in Kavango Basin may mean huge benefits for Namibians
Cape Town and Dubai battle over Africa's energy future
Is America going to lose its superpower status?
Hong Kong suspends import of poultry meat and products from Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan
Share of Russian agricultural exports to friendly countries grows to 82% in 2022
Ministry of Agriculture: Yangtze River fishing ban sees positive progress
Netherlands: Gross seed onion yield down 17.2 percent
Price growth led to record start for Norwegian seafood exports in 2023
Product images could boost food pantry use
The madness of fast service: I want it now!
How to build a resilient brand
Only 32% of employees believe their pay is fair
Corporate duty waivers limit organic company growth and innovation
AG for District of Colubia: $1,950,000 available for eligible Drizly drivers as result of tip-theft investigation
North Carolina: 52 stores pay fines for price scanning errors in 33 counties
EAO issued third fine for Coastal GasLink project
Dutch central bank fines cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase 3.3 mln euros
Bloomberg to pay $5 million for misleading disclosures about its valuation methodologies for fixed income securities
La Chandeleur in Paris: Crêpe Day for all of you
Tru by Hilton Monterrey Fundidora hotel opens in Mexico
IntercityHotel Berlin Airport BER opens
Art After School, the perfect way to spark imagination in your child
The world's biggest food fair in Berlin you don't wanna miss
Honda Pilot TrailSport, fully equipped SUV with great ground clearance
2024 Corvette E-ray, electrified 4WD
Jaguar I-PACE is now more distinctive
2023 Toyota Prius expected this January
2023 Lincoln Corsair, advance features and ActiveGlide
Solios watches, from nature to luxury
Coats of faux fur, but not of faux style
Redifining kitchen space and experience with workstations
Dinning sofas, a soft addition to a modern dinning table
Patchwork carpets, vintage Persian carpets made with unparalleled skill
Harman Luxury Audio introduces new JBL Classic Series
KEF KC62, audio excellence and design ingenuity
Panasonic announces flagship OLED TV MZ2000
McIntosh MC451, 150 Watt vacuum tube and 300 Watt solid state amplifier
Headonia 2A3, luxury headphone amplifier that comes with gloves
Synthetic opioids will be banned as UK government acts to stop drug deaths
Japan gives priority review status to Alzheimer's drug developed by Eisai, Biogen
Working group proposes on how to make Finland tobacco-free by 2030
Study: Merck COVID-19 pill linked to virus mutations
South Africa authorises roll out of COVID-19 boosters to fight Omicron variant
Webb telescope catches early galaxy formation in action
Straigh and gay men both prefer masculine men for important jobs
Green comet to visit Earth after 50,000 years
Astronomers captured spectacular, ongoing collision between at least three galaxy clusters
NASA system predicts small asteroid to pass close by Earth this week