Pigmeat recovery talk looks premature for EU producers
It is basing its views on new figures shared during a European Commission (EC) pigmeat forecasting meeting held in Brussels on Monday.
Despite widespread expectation that many EU producers would either reduce their herds or leave the industry altogether this year, it’s now forecast that production won’t start to fall until the third quarter of 2016 and then only by a minimal amount.
New estimates from the forecasting group, coupled with official figures from member states which were not represented at the Monday meeting, actually show EU pig slaughterings in the first half of 2016 moving slightly higher than in the same period of 2015.
After that, the latest forecasts show production starting to fall back, albeit only marginally in the third quarter.
The group also produced quarterly price forecasts for the coming year. These indicate a rise in value during the spring and summer, assuming reasonably favourable seasonal demand, but without prices increasing more than they did last summer. ■