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Industrial confidence indicator in Slovakia in January decreased by 3,3 p.p.

Staff Writer |
In January, the confidence indicator in industry decreased by 3,3 p.p. (percentage points) to -2.

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The development of the indicator was influenced the most by the expected decrease of the production over the next three months and by a decrease of orders.

Compared with the previous month, the industrial production trend had an upward trend. The balance increased by 25 p.p. to 36. An increase was recorded mainly in manufacture of food and in the chemical industry.

There was a decrease in the majority of sectors, mainly in manufacture of other non-metallic products, machinery and equipment n.e.c. and computer, electronic and optical products. Compared with December, the business balance of the aggregate orders decreased (by 3 p.p. to -5).

A more considerable decrease of orders was recorded mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, other manufacture, repair and installations and wood and paper products.

On the contrary, an increase of orders was reported mainly in the chemical industry and in manufacture of food and textiles. 91 % of respondents consider the current orders to be sufficient. The balance of foreign orders decreased by 5 p.p. to -6.

A decrease of foreign orders is assumed mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, wood and paper products and in the chemical industry.

An increasing trend of foreign orders was reported mainly in manufacture of electrical equipment. 93 % of exporting respondents consider them to be sufficient.

In January compared with December, the balance of the finished goods stock decreased by 4 p.p. to -2. A decrease of the goods stock was reported mainly in manufacture of pharmaceutical products and wood and paper products.

An increase of the goods stock was mainly in other manufacture, repair and installations and in manufacture of textiles. In general, 95 % of respondents consider the state of the stock to be sufficient.

In January compared with December, the balance of the expected production over the next three months, decreased by 11 p.p. to -3.

Respondents in manufacture of food were the most pessimistic. In other groups, an increase of the production is expected, mainly in manufacture of other non-metallic products, machinery and equipment n. e. c. and transport equipment and electrical equipment, by regions in Bratislava and Prešov.

Compared with December, the balance of the expected development of industrial products prices over the next three months, decreased by 15 p.p. to -13, representing the lowest value since May 2009.

A price decrease is assumed mainly in manufacture of basic metal and fabricated metal products, in the chemical industry and in manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. On the contrary, a price increase is assumed mainly in manufacture of textiles and other non-metallic products.

However, the majority of enterprises (77 %) do not expect any changes in the price level of their own products. Compared with the previous month, the balance of the employment deteriorated, when the balance decreased by 8 p.p. to -8.

A decrease in the number of employees is assumed mainly in manufacture of basic metal and fabricated metal products and transport equipment, by size groups, in enterprises employing 1000 and more people and by regions in Košice and Bratislava.

An increase of employment is expected on the contrary, mainly in the chemical industry, in manufacture of wood and paper products and other manufacture, repair and installations, by size groups, in enterprises employing 500 and 999 people and by regions in Prešov and Trenčín.

When evaluating the factors limiting the rise of industrial production, 34 % of respondents reported an insufficient demand, 32 % shortage of employees. 26 % of respondents do not feel any barriers of growth.

Production capacity decreased by 9 p.p. to 2. The majority of respondents (95 %) consider the current production capacity to be sufficient. Based on orders, enterprises have reserved work for 7 months on average, while production is ensured mostly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products. Industrial companies use production capacities to 88 % on average.

Over the next three months, an increase in the development of orders is expected according to the respondent forecasts, compared with the previous month, the overall balance increased by 9 points. Orders will be most increased in manufacture of electrical equipment and transport equipment.

A decrease of orders is expected in manufacture of basic metal and fabricated metal products and machinery and equipment n.e.c. Compared with the previous quarter, the balance of the expected export decreased by 2 points while a decrease of the export is assumed mainly in manufacture of basic metal and fabricated metal products.

Based on the survey results, the position of enterprises in domestic competitive environment improved compared with the previous quarter, when the balance increased by 8 to 9.

On foreign markets inside the EU, the balance decreased by 1 p.p. to -1, on markets outside the EU, the balance remained at the same level as in the previous quarter (value 14).


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