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Romania: Inflation drops to 10-month low in October

Staff Writer |
Consumer prices in Romania rose 0.5% over the previous month in October, matching September’s increase.

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Higher prices for food, non-food goods and for services drove the result, with prices for food goods growing the most. Vegetables and fuels recorded the strongest increases in prices, while fruit and tinned fruit recorded the largest decrease.

Inflation fell from September’s 5.0% to a 10-month low of 4.3% in October, but nevertheless remained above the Central Bank’s target range of 1.5%–3.5%, where it has been for ten consecutive months. Meanwhile, annual average inflation rose from 4.5% in September to 4.6% in October, the highest level since September 2013.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see inflation averaging 3.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, panelists expect average inflation of 3.0%.

Industrial output expanded a 17-month low of 0.5% in annual terms in September, well below August’s 3.7% growth rate. According to the Statistical Institute, the expansion in September came on the back of weak growth in the manufacturing sector. On the other hand, the mining and quarrying and electricity and gas, steam and air conditioning sectors contracted.

On a seasonally- and working-day adjusted month-on-month basis, industrial production output contracted 1.6% in September, contrasting August’s 0.4% uptick. Annual average growth in industrial production, meanwhile, dropped from 6.1% in August to 5.6% in September, the lowest reading in over one year.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to expand 3.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. The panel predicts that industrial output will increase 3.3% in 2020.

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