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Serbia, Lithuania, Turkey only ones to see full recovery by 2022

Christian Fernsby |
Only Serbia, Lithuania and Turkey will succeed in restoring economic activity to 2019 pre pandemic levels by 2022, according to new projections from the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW).

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Economic recovery in the region will depend on success in containing the coronavirus pandemic without resorting to prolonged lockdowns, as well as on continued government support measures, a WIIW analysis said.

Most CESEE countries have handled the first wave of the pandemic better than Western Europe has but many economies in the region are still suffering heavily, in particular those that are reliant on tourism, such as Croatia and Montenegro, and those that are highly dependent on external trade, such as smaller Visegrad Group nations and Slovenia, WIIW said.

The stringent restricitons introduced in response to an accelerated second wave of the pandemic could be toughened in the months to come, making another decline of economic activity practically certain, the institute said.

The medium term outlook is extremely uncertain, the WIIW said, noting that the CESEE region would this year see a 4.5 pct economic decline.

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