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Exponential rises in coronavirus cases in South East and East of England

Christian Fernsby |
From the beginning of 26 December, Norfolk, Suffolk, Cambridgeshire, Oxfordshire and most of Hampshire to be escalated to Tier 4, Cheshire and Northamptonshire escalated to Tier 3, and Cornwall and Herefordshire escalated to Tier 2, the government says.

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Topics: ENGLAND    CORONAVIRUS   

Latest data confirms rapid case rises are strongly linked to the new strain of coronavirus.


After careful consideration of the latest data, the following local authority areas will move to Tier 4: Stay at Home from the beginning of 26 December:

Brighton and Hove
Cambridgeshire
- remaining parts of East Sussex not already in Tier 4 (Eastbourne Borough Council, Lewes District Council and Wealden District Council)
- remaining parts of Essex not already in Tier 4 (Colchester Borough, Tendring District, and Uttlesford District Councils)
- Hampshire (Basingstoke and Deane Borough, East Hampshire District, Eastleigh Borough, Fareham Borough, Hart District, Rushmoor Borough, Test Valley Borough, Winchester City Councils)
Norfolk
Oxfordshire
Southampton
Suffolk
Waverley Borough
West Sussex

The following local authority areas will move to Tier 3: Very High:

Bristol
Cheshire East
Cheshire West and Chester
Gloucestershire
Isle of Wight
New Forest District
North Somerset
Northamptonshire
Somerset
Swindon
Warrington

The following local authority areas will move from Tier 1: Medium to Tier 2: High:

Cornwall
Herefordshire

The latest analysis shows a strong correlation between areas with the most rapid rise of cases and prevalence of the new strain of COVID-19. The government has decided to act ahead of the formal review point, in order to contain the spread of this new and more transmissible strain.

Since the end of national restrictions, the situation in the South and East of England has deteriorated. New cases have continued to rise and hospital admissions have increased. Without urgent action this trend would continue at an increasingly rapid rate, leading to a rise in hospital admissions and deaths in the following 2 weeks and hitting the NHS at its busiest time of year.

New data suggests that the increasing speed of transmission in London, the South East and East of England is being driven by the new variant of the virus. There is no current evidence to suggest the new strain causes a higher mortality rate, or that it affects vaccines and treatments, but the latest NERVTAG analysis continues to indicate that the variant is more transmissible than other strains.

Between 9 and 16 December in the East of England the weekly case rate rose sharply to 380 per 100,000 – a 100% increase on the previous week. Rates in the South East have increased to 349 per 100,000 – a 77% increase on the previous week. Rates in the South West have increased to 123 per 100,000 – a 46% rise on the previous week.

All available data has been assessed by the Government, including the Health and Social Care Secretary, NHS Test and Trace including the Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC), Public Health England (PHE), the Chief Medical Officer and the Cabinet Office.

As confirmed on Monday 21 December, all clinically extremely vulnerable individuals will be asked to shield if they reside in Tier 4 areas. People living in the additional Tier 4 areas announced today will be sent a letter or email with advice and details of support. In the meantime they should follow the shielding advice set out on GOV.UK.

Tier 3 and 4 areas will continue to be prioritised for community lateral flow testing, with over 100 local authorities now having signed up to the enhanced testing support programme, and some Tier 2 areas also eligible.

More than 2 million tests have already been deployed to over 100 local authorities to start community testing through the Directors of Public Health programme. Scientists at PHE Porton Down have confirmed that Lateral Flow Device tests can successfully detect the new variant of SARS-CoV-2.

Data assessed includes how quickly case rates are going up or down, cases in the over 60s, pressure on the NHS and local circumstances. Where regions are densely populated with lots of people travelling between areas, tiers must be targeted at the appropriate level to protect people and control transmission.

The next formal review of tiering decisions will take place by 30 December. The government keeps the data under constant review and will take immediate action to protect local communities.


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