A quasi-stationary front will be the focus for severe thunderstorms across central Texas and Oklahoma tonight.
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The Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms issued by the Storm Prediction Center highlights the possibility of large and potentially destructive hail, isolated severe wind gusts, or a tornado associated with this evening's threat.
Abundant moisture, supplied by the Gulf of Mexico, will interact with the aforementioned quasi-stationary front, producing heavy rain and subsequent flash flooding risks from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley tonight.
A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for much of the Ozarks region where potential 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates could cause flash flooding.
A deepening upper-level trough spinning through the Southern Plains will then kick on a surface low pressure system to begin rapidly intensifying over northern Texas and into the Mid-South through Friday.
The attendant cold front will become the focus for severe weather from the ArkLaTex to the Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon into the evening.
A Moderate risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley where, according to the Storm Prediction Center, some strong tornadoes, damaging winds and hail are expected.
Meanwhile, the quasi-stationary front responsible for dangerous weather tonight will be responsible for another round of heavy rainfall from the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley.
There's a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall from northeastern Arkansas along the Ohio River into southwestern Ohio where 2-4 inches of rainfall over primed soils and streams may cause flash flooding.
Heavy snow and strong winds are likely to develop on the north side of the dynamic Mid-South/Midwest system early Saturday morning, and continue into the evening.
Between 4-8 inches of snow is expected by Sunday morning from southeastern Wisconsin to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
This could lead to tricky travel across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region.
Elsewhere, chilly temperatures persist across the West, while seasonably warm temperatures spread across the southeastern quadrant of the country through this weekend.
Heavy snow blankets the western mountains over the next couple of days, as well.
There's a critical fire weather area for portions of west Texas tomorrow due to dry and windy conditions. ■
A clipper system will move quickly across the northern Plains into the Midwest Friday and the Northeast by Saturday, bringing a wintry mix of rain and snow showers ahead of a sweeping cold front.