A developing area of low pressure across the Central Plains late Monday afternoon will be pushing east northeastward over the next two days, producing potential high impacts during the upcoming busy pre-Thanksgiving Day travel period for large portions of the country from the Mississippi River eastward.
Article continues below
Precipitation associated with this storm is already fairly well defined late this afternoon across portions of the Central to Southern Plains toward the Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley.
This precipitation area will remain well defined tonight with increasing thunderstorm potential across the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coastal region tonight into Tuesday.
Along with the heavy rain potential, severe weather is possible across these areas with high winds, hail and tornadoes possible.
To the north of the area of severe weather threat, widespread moderate to heavy rains are likely to the east of the Mississippi river, across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, Appalachians, Southeast, Mid Atlantic and into the Northeast.
Nearly all of these regions have had much below average precipitation over the past several weeks, with areas from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley in Severe to Exceptional drought conditions.
Given these recent dry conditions, stream flows and soil moisture are below average, which should decrease the threat of flash floods.
However, isolated flash flooding still possible given the heavy rainfall threat, especially across urban areas.
Nearly all of the precipitation to the east of the Mississippi River with this developing storm will be in the form of rain.
The exceptions to this will be from the Central Appalachians into portions of the interior Northeast where a period of sleet and freezing rain is possible at the onset of the precipitation Tuesday morning before changing over to rain.
A period of accumulating snows are also possible across northern New York State into Northern New England Tuesday night into Wednesday before this precipitation also changes over to rain.
Much more tranquil weather expected across most regions to the west of the Mississippi River to the West coast over the next few days.
Much of this region will be dry, save for the Pacific Northwest where a slow moving front will bring light to moderate precipitation amounts late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Above average temperatures expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the West Coast, across the Rockies and into the Northern to Central Plains.
Much colder temperatures expected across the Northern Plains beginning late Wednesday into Thanksgiving as a strong cold front pushes southward out of central Canada. ■