OECD: World economy to grow at 3.4%
"Advanced economies are gaining momentum and driving the pick-up in global growth, while once-stalled cylinders of the economic engine, like investment and trade, are starting to fire again," OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said while launching the Outlook during the Organisation's annual Ministerial Council Meeting and Forum in Paris.
"But with the world still facing persistently high unemployment, countries must do more to enhance resilience, boost inclusiveness and strengthen job creation. The time for reforms is now: we need policies that spur growth but at the same time create opportunities for all, ensuring that the benefits of economic activity are broadly shared," Mr. Gurria said.
GDP growth across the 34-member OECD is projected to accelerate to a 2.2% rate in 2014 and 2.8% in 2015, according to the Outlook. The world economy will grow at a 3.4% rate in 2014 and 3.9% in 2015.
Among the major advanced economies, recovery is best established in the United States, which is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2014 and 3.5% in 2015. The euro area will see a return of positive growth after three years of contraction: 1.2% in 2014 and 1.7% in 2015. In Japan, growth will be dented by the launch of much-needed fiscal consolidation measures, and is expected to hover at 1.2% in 2014 and 2015.
The BRIICS (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa) are projected to see GDP growth of 5.3% this year on average and 5.7% in 2015. China will again have the fastest growth among these countries, with rates just below 7.5% in 2014 and 2015.
The Outlook draws attention to a range of positive developments as well as significant downside risks. Investment and trade are both showing signs of picking up, but growth will remain moderate by past standards. Financial conditions are improving in the advanced economies, but tighter credit and supply side bottlenecks are damping growth in emerging economies.
Unemployment has begun falling from the historic levels seen in the wake of the crisis, but more than 44 million people are projected to still be out of work across the OECD area at end-2015, 11 million more than before the crisis. ■