Climate change-driven redistribution of key commercial tuna species will deliver an economic blow to the small island states of the Western and Central Pacific and threaten the sustainability of the world's largest tuna fishery, a major international study has found.
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The study combines climate science, ecological modeling and economic data to provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of climate change on Pacific tuna stocks and on the small island states that depend on them. It is published today in Nature Sustainability, Benjamin Long, University of Wollongong writes.
A consortium of institutions and organizations from across the Pacific, North America and Europe contributed to the research, including the University of Wollongong, Conservation International, the Pacific Community (SPC), the Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA), and the Parties to the Nauru Agreement Office (PNAO).
The 10 island states of the Western and Central Pacific—Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tokelau and Tuvalu—are so reliant on their tuna fisheries for economic development and food security that they are considered "tuna dependent".
The management of most of the Islands' tuna fisheries through a cooperative agreement has been a sustainable development success story over several decades, providing reliable and much needed revenue for development while preventing the depletion of fish stocks through overfishing.
Around half of the world's tuna catch comes from the waters of the Western and Central Pacific, and for those 10 small island states, fishing fees from industrial fishing fleets to gain access to their waters account for an average of 37 percent of all government revenue (ranging from 4 percent of government revenue for the relatively large economy of Papua New Guinea to 84 percent for Tokelau).
Study lead author Dr. Johann Bell, Senior Director, Pacific Tuna Fisheries, Conservation International Center for Oceans, and Visiting Professorial Fellow at UOW's Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security (ANCORS), said the key species of skipjack, yellowfin, and bigeye tuna were highly migratory and move over large swaths of the ocean according to oceanographic conditions.
"Currently, these tuna stocks are found largely within the waters of the 10 island states. However, under climate change, they are projected to shift eastward, progressively moving out of sovereign waters and into the high seas," Dr. Bell said. ■