The National Supply Company (Conab), released the 3rd Survey of the 2021 Coffee Crop.
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The forecast is that Brazil will produce approximately 46.9 million bags of processed coffee.
The number represents a decrease of 25.7% compared to the result of the 2020 harvest, considered a record. The area in production, in turn, is currently estimated at 1.8 million hectares, 4.4% smaller than the previous harvest.
Arabica coffee production is estimated at 30.7 million bags, 36.9% less than the volume produced in the previous harvest. Conilon, in turn, should reach a production of 16.15 million bags, which indicates an increase of 12.8% over the result obtained in 2020.
In addition to the physiological effects of the negative biennial, observed in several producing regions in this cycle, the reasons for the reduction also include the adverse climatic conditions of drought in many locations and the frosts, which occurred in June and July. These factors influenced both the reduction of the average yield and the decrease in the production area.
The Conab survey was carried out at a time when more than 95% of the planted areas have already been harvested. The result of the field research shows a reduction in production compared to the previous season.
Coffee is one of the cultures characterized by bienniality. In other words, in one year the crop produces a greater number of fruits, requiring more nutrients from the plant, while in the following year, production is lower. Thus, the lower production allows the restoration of plant structures and plant reserves.
Precisely because of the negative bienniality, the physiological effects on crops are more latent in the production phase, especially for Arabica coffee, which is more sensitive to this phenomenon when compared to Conilon coffee.
In this context, in relation to the largest producing states, Minas Gerais should reach 21.4 million bags, a reduction of 38.1% compared to 2020.
The estimated harvest for EspÃrito Santo should be just over 14 million bags, 11 million for conilon and 3 million for arabica.
Next comes the state of São Paulo, with an estimated production of 4 million bags of Arabica coffee. This represents a reduction of 35.1%, compared to the previous harvest, which reached just over 6 million bags.
Bahia should produce almost 3.5 million bags, 13% more than in 2020. Rondônia will harvest almost 2.2 million bags, a decrease of 11.3%. In Paraná, production is estimated at almost 873 thousand bags of coffee.
Rio de Janeiro, in turn, has an expected production of 236 thousand bags, a reduction of 36.4%. In Goiás, there will be 212 thousand bags, 14.4% less than in 2020. Finally, Mato Grosso should produce 194 thousand bags.
Unlike other states, Mato Grosso represented an increase of 22.6% compared to the previous harvest. This is due to a change in the state's production system, which is undergoing transformations, with the predominance of new propagation materials and greater investments in state coffee production. ■