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International Grains Council sees even larger world wheat surplus

Staff Writer |
The forecast world wheat surplus just keeps getting bigger and bigger, as the International Grains Council once again lifted ideas of global production in 2016-17.

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The IGC's forecast for total wheat production was lifted by 7m tonnes from a month ago, to 729m tonnes.

The global wheat market is now expected to be 9m tonnes in surplus, compared to the 3m tonnes deficit that was being forecast just three months ago.

Prospects for barley production were also raised, helping to push the forecast for total grain stocks to a new record high.

"Although still placed lower year on year, prospects for wheat production continue to improve," the IGC said.

But the council warned that "the wet finish to the growing season in several countries will likely have a negative impact on average quality," the IGC said.

There is expected to be an increase in the use of wheat for livestock feed, the council said.

"Amid heavy supplies, attractively-priced wheat is capturing some feed demand from alternatives, including maize, although use of the latter is still seen at its highest ever," said the IGC.

But even with heavier use of wheat in animal feed, the world wheat balance is now expected to be comfortably in surplus, with world production outstripping demand by 3m tonnes.nts to China contribute to a predicted drop in world trade," the IGC said.