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New Russian 2020 agriculture plan cuts harvest, export forecasts

Staff Writer |
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry has cut its 2018–2020 grain harvest forecast in amendments to its 2020 state agriculture development program.

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This is including to 104 million tonnes in 2017 from 92 million tonnes in the basic scenario, as seen by PRIME in draft amendments.

The previous best-case scenario said the 2017 harvest will amount to 107 million tonnes.

The previous plan said Russia will harvest 110 million tonnes of grain in 2018, 113 million tonnes in 2019, and at 115 million tonnes in 2020. The amended edition sees the gross grain harvests at 104 million tonnes in 2017, 106 million tonnes in 2018, 108 million tonnes in 2019, and 110 million tonnes in 2020.

The amendments also say that in 2016 Russia harvested 104 million tonnes of grain, while the Federal State Statistics Service said that it reached a record of 119.1 million tonnes.

The ministry expects Russia’s export potential at 30 million tonnes by 2020, and the grain intervention fund at 4 million tonnes.

In the 2015–2016 agricultural year, Russia exported 33.9 million tonnes of grain, including 24.6 million tonnes of wheat. In 2015, Russia’s grain crop amounted to 104.8 million tonnes. The ministry expects Russia’s grain export potential at 37.4 million tonnes in the 2016–2017 agricultural year as farmers harvested 119.1 million tonnes of grain, including 73.3 million tonnes of wheat.

The long-term agriculture development strategy sees Russia raising grain harvests to 130 million tonnes in 2030, or 150 million tonnes, with the crop yield rising to 30 hundredweights per hectare and sowing area growing to 50 million hectares. Grain exports are seen at 50 million tonnes in 2030.

The ministry also changed the forecast for output of Russian agriculture – it is now expected to grow by 1.7% on the year in 2017, by 1.7% in 2018, by 1.8% in 2019, and by 2.1% in 2020 in comparable prices.

The current edition of the state program says agricultural output will grow 1.1% on the year under the baseline scenario in 2017 and 2.1% under the optimistic plan, and a further growth of 2.1% every year until 2020.

Moreover, the ministry also suggested the government cut financing for the agriculture development program by about 41.2% to a combined figure of 586.074 billion rubles in 2018–2020.

The current edition of the program sees budget financing at 300.227 billion rubles in 2017, at 324.028 billion rubles in 2018, at 337.775 billion rubles in 2019, and at 350.364 billion rubles in 2020.

But the budget stipulates financing of 215.852 billion rubles this year, 197.958 billion rubles in 2018, and 194.056 billion rubles in 2019.

The new edition of the state program includes these figures and also envisages financing of 194.060 billion rubles in 2020.

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