A new study of Sub-Saharan Africa’s meat supply chain reveals that demand is expected to grow but that many producers may struggle to meet this unless they move to a more commercial base, writes Rupert Claxton, Gira.
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Of the 43 markets covered in Gira’s Sub-Saharan Africa study all except Chad and Niger had an increase in meat and fish consumption from 2004-2014.
The average for the region was 4% per annum with the total volume reaching 22 million tonnes cwe in 2015, itself a bad year due to global commodity price impact on African economies.
Gira’s mid-term outlook suggests growth of over 3%, and this is with the expectation that the local supply structure will struggle to keep abreast of demand.
The Sub-Saharan region has not featured strongly in the minds of exporters or investors from the meat industry historically, with diverse markets, and complex political and social issues, making it a difficult region to operate in.
But, the growth seen over the last 10 years, and the expected mid and long term outlook mean that Sub-Sharan markets will become increasingly significant for both.
Most attention from outside (and also from inside) is focussed on the major markets of; South Africa (the most advanced, economically and agriculturally), Angola (the biggest meat importer) and Nigeria (optimistically touted as the up and coming economic power house) … and few companies venture far beyond this.
These markets are the largest meat markets in Africa, with arguably the biggest potential, but the opportunity beyond these is strong, but far less understood.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s population of 975 million consumers is growing at 2.6 per cent per annum, and has been for the last decade.
These consumers are mostly very poor by international standards and meat and fish only represents an occasional dietary option, with eggs and fermented milk more common protein sources.
But, rising disposable incomes and a growing middle class mean that the population is gaining a taste for increased meat consumption, which combined with a strong population growth rate and rapid urbanisation means that the potential is only just being realised.
But the challenges for the industry in the mid-term will slow the potential growth as livestock production, as in all markets, except South Africa, production remains mainly in the backyard and informal sector.
The current producers can expand, but are limited by their agricultural knowhow, access to funding and desire for more market focused production.
This means that to meet the increase in demand for meat the industry must transition to a more commercial base. This is a process that is already underway, but at very different levels in different markets. ■