U.S. soybean production to reach record this year
Analysts and Iowa Soybean Association (ISA) experts say it’s a good thing farmers and soybean organizations have worked hard to build demand. Even though prices won’t set any records, they’re not expected to drop significantly, which has accompanied colossal crops in the past.
U.S. soybean production is estimated at slightly more than 4 billion bushels, the report said. That’s compared to 3.93 billion last year. The first survey-based national yield forecast is 48.9 bushels per acre, up 2.2 bushels from last month, according to the report.
Iowa soybeans are predicted to average 57 bushels per acre, the report said. Despite a record yield forecast, production is expected to drop about 4 million bushels to little more than 550 million due to a decrease in harvested acres.
With Brazil basically out of soybeans and continued strong domestic and foreign demand, analysts say the U.S. is positioned well to be the supplier of choice for months to come.
According to the report, 2015/16 ending stocks are projected at 255 million bushels, down 95 million from last month. Exports and soybean crush were increased 85 and 10 million bushels, respectively, to end the year at 1.88 billion and 1.9 billion bushels.
During the 2016/17 marketing year, the government predicts 1.94 billion bushels of soybeans will be crushed and 1.95 billion bushels exported. Yet, ending stocks are estimated at 330 million bushels due to record production, which is significantly higher than this year’s ending number.
Global soybean demand will help support prices. Baize said use is expected to increase by nearly 463 million bushels in 2016/17. Demand increased by nearly 600 million bushels in 2015/16 and more than 900 million bushels in 2014/15.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2016/17 is forecast at $8.35 to $9.35 per bushel, down 40 cents on both ends of the range, according to the report. November soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade closed today at nearly $9.82 per bushel, down less than 2 cents from the opening bell. ■