POST Online Media Lite Edition



 

Argentina consumer sentiment recovers, economic activity up, exports down

Staff Writer |
In July, the Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index rose from June’s 42.0 to 42.5.

Article continues below






The index is nevertheless still below the 50-point threshold that separates pessimistic from optimistic sentiment, where it has been firmly entrenched since February 2015.

Consumers are reacting with some volatility to recent economic news, as despite being back on track, the economy still suffers from numerous imbalances stemming from the previous administration’s economic policies, such as widespread unemployment, high inflation and a large fiscal deficit.

The latest available data shows that unemployment rose significantly in Q1 2017, despite the economy accelerating and registering its third quarter-on-quarter expansion in a row.

Moreover, the tight stance of the Central Bank, albeit effective in bringing down inflation, may be weighing on consumer sentiment.

In July, consumers were far more willing to make major purchases than in the previous month, especially of houses and cars, which bodes well for private consumption.

On the other hand, their outlook regarding their future personal situation deteriorated somewhat and their assessment of the country’s short-term macroeconomic prospects weakened substantially, probably influenced by the mixed signals sent by the economy.

However, their assessment of the country’s long-term macroeconomic prospects improved, a signal that consumers are more confident that current economic policies will eventually bear fruit.

Panelists surveyed for the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see private consumption rising 2.9% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2018, panelists expect private consumption to increase 3.0%.

In May, the monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) rose 3.3%, the fastest rate in one and a half years well above April’s revised 0.5% expansion (previously reported: +0.6% yoy).

The fishing, construction, restaurants and hotels and transport and communication sectors recorded the strongest annual improvements.

In contrast, the mining and quarrying and electricity, gas and water sectors posted the largest year-on-year contractions.

A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity expanded 0.6% in May, contrasting April’s revised 0.2% increase (previously reported: 0.0% seasonally adjusted month-on-month).

On average, economic activity decreased 1.4% in the 12 months up to May, which is an improvement from the 1.9% drop in the 12 months up to April.

Our analysts project the economy to rebound and expand 2.9% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, panelists expect the economy to expand 3.1%.

In June, exports dropped 2.6% from the same month last year, contrasting May’s subdued 0.8% increase.

Exports declined on the back of lower prices and overall export volumes.

As for the different product categories, exports of primary products, agricultural manufactures and fuels and energy fell, more than offsetting an increase in exports of industrial manufactures.

As for the export markets which contributed the most to the fall in exports, exports to China, India, Venezuela and Vietnam diminished the most, with the fall in exports to China mainly explained by lower sales of soya beans.

On the other hand, the export markets which grew the most were Chile, the United States and Finland.

On a monthly basis, exports fell 4.4% in seasonally adjusted terms in June, contrasting May’s revised 1.6% expansion (previously reported: +1.7% month-on-month).

Imports jumped 15.4% annually in June, below May’s impressive 24.0% expansion. The trade balance therefore worsened from a $173 million surplus in June 2016 to a $748 million deficit in June 2017.

In the 12 months up to June, the trade balance posted an accumulated shortfall of $1.2 billion, which followed the $0.3 billion deficit recorded in the 12 months till May.

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect exports to expand 5.9% in 2017 and imports increasing 8.9%, thus pushing the trade balance to a $0.80.6 billion deficit.

For 2018, the panel expects exports to increase 6.6% and imports to expand 7.7%, with a trade shortfall of $1.60.0 billion.


What to read next

U.S. consumer sentiment improves more than expected in December
U.S. consumer sentiment picks up more than expected in March
U.S. consumer sentiment remains steady in September

U.S. bans Huawei, ZTE equipment over security risk

 
The Biden administration has banned approvals of new telecommunications equipment from China's Huawei Technologies and ZTE because they pose "an unacceptable risk" to U.S. national security.
 
 

Latest

Patchwork carpets, vintage Persian carpets made with unparalleled skill
Protests erupt in Xinjiang and Beijing against COVID-19 lockdowns
U.S.: Several regions face rainy, snowy weather
At least eight people dead in landslide in Italy

NEWS

Brazilian police launches operation against theft in containers at Port of Mucuripe/CE

Federal Police of Brazil launches operation to combat illegal sand extraction
U.S.: Heavy rainfall over south Texas, Santa Ana winds in southern California
Scotland agrees deal to avert Christmas rail strikes, begins talks with nurses
South Korean president warns to use special powers to end truckers' strike
British nurses to stage first strikes on December 15, 20
 

BUSINESS

Hengqin Line's landmark undersea tunnel connects Guangdong, Macao

EirGrid and RTE sign technical and financial agreements for Celtic Interconnector
Zuunbayan-Khangi railway set to deliver major boost to Mongolian exports and economy
Europe pours billions into Serbian Belgrade-Niš rail line
UK highways projects costing billions more than planned
UK car production returns to growth in October
 

Trending Now

Zuunbayan-Khangi railway set to deliver major boost to Mongolian exports and economy

EirGrid and RTE sign technical and financial agreements for Celtic Interconnector

U.S. bans Huawei, ZTE equipment over security risk

Bulgaria and Germany will receive substantial funding from EU for maritime affairs, fisheries, aquaculture by 2027


POLITICS

U.S. excludes oil for Japan from Russia's Sakhalin-2 from price cap

$15 million fast-tracked to fix roads in central and western NSW
New York Governor: Shop locally on Small Business Saturday
New York: More than $68m for 74 projects through Regional Economic Development Council initiative
Minister Ng launches exploratory talks toward free trade agreement between Canada and Ecuador
Council agrees on substance of new measures on joint purchases of gas and solidarity mechanism
 

Today We Recommend

UK highways projects costing billions more than planned


Highlights 

BMW invests EUR2 billion in Hungarian plant, will create 500+ jobs

Veon to unload Russian operations for $2.1 billion

SSE to sell 25% stake in transmission network arm for £1.5bn


COMPANIES

Commission clears ALD's acquisition of LeasePlan, subject to conditions

BMW invests EUR2 billion in Hungarian plant, will create 500+ jobs
Phantom Space gets four new NASA task orders
Gascade completes first LNG link to German gas network
Veon to unload Russian operations for $2.1 billion
Amazon workers called to strike across globe on Black Friday
 

CAREERS

1NCE expands leadership team in Europe and Asia-Pacific

Walt Disney fires CEO Bob Chapek, returns Robert A. Iger
Appian appoints Silvio Lima as head of corporate affairs
Appia Rare Earths appoints Irvine R. Annesley as vice president
Charwood Energy appoints Pierre-Yves Lefebvre as CFO
Moon Surgical appoints Mark Toland as director
 

ECONOMY

Abu Dhabi GDP expands 11.2pc in H1 on robust non-oil activities

German economy grows more than initially estimated in Q3
Poland: Retail sales record slowest growth since February in October
Russia: Decline in industrial activity softens in October
Argentina: Merchandise exports decline in October
Argentina: Economic activity growth drops to six-month low in September
 

EARNINGS

G. Willi-Food Q3 sales increased by 16.6%

Deere Q4 net income $2.246 billion
Nordstrom Q3 net loss $20 million
VMware Q3 revenue $3.21 billion
Guess? Q3 net earnings down 26.9%
HP Inc. GAAP diluted net EPS down significantly, to eliminate between 4,000 and 6,000 jobs
 

OP-ED

Micromanaging is the worst enemy of efficiency and teamwork

Niger set to monetize massive gas reserves through Saharan natural gas pipeline
Putting the brakes on EV folly that choked the market
Oil discovery in Kavango Basin may mean huge benefits for Namibians
Cape Town and Dubai battle over Africa's energy future
Is America going to lose its superpower status?
 

AGRIFISH

Bulgaria and Germany will receive substantial funding from EU for maritime affairs, fisheries, aquaculture by 2027

Authorities introduce Swiss-wide anti-bird flu measures
Ghana: African Development Fund approves $27.9m grant for Savannah Agriculture Value Chain Development Project
Maine delegation and Governor Mills urge national retailers to continue selling Maine lobster
Uruguay will be able to export sorghum to China for human and animal consumption
Hong Kong suspends import of poultry meat and products from areas in Ireland, France and Japan
 

LEADERSHIP

Women buy from women, men buy from women and men

How employee opinion impacts CEO dismissal
Keeping it in family can be good news when it comes to CEOs
Over a third of office workers are hybrid 'misfits'
Proxy advisers have inherent incentive to create controversy, study shows
Established employees need adjustment period with new work colleagues
 

CRIME

Ukraine fines Engie, Shell subsidiaries over Nord Stream 2

New Zealand fines Southland fishing company $40,000
Italy's antitrust fines Edison Energia 3.8 mln euros over unfair practices
FTC secures monetary judgment in deceptive energy savings claims case
Croatian Competition Agency fines dairy processing company PIK Rijeka $13,740 for imposing unfair trading practices
SEC charges S&P Global Ratings with conflict of interest violations
 

Magazine

TRAVEL

Candlewood Suites Hotel opens in Aberdeen, Md.

Mount Roraima, Venezuela, 7,671 feet above the forest floor
Llao Llao Resort, an exclusive resort in the middle of nowhere
Abu Dhabi welcomes visitors to discover experiences at their own pace
Christmas Nights of Lights started in Indiana
Okinawa International Carnival, a parade of unique foreigners groups
 

SEA, LAND, AIR

New colorful Porsche 718 Style Edition models

2023 Toyota Prius Prime, solar panel roof and reliability
Volvo EX90, a car with updates
Cessna Citation CJ4 Gen2 jet, pursue your business goals while enjoying journey
GMC first Sierra EV marks turning point
BMW M2, fast beast in small package
 

DESIGN

Real life wallpapers, perfectly executed

A. Lange & Söhne, men's watches with true Saxonian DNA
Nella Vetrina, luxurious Italian designers bathroom vanities and furniture
Karastan rugs, durable and beautiful
Leather bags for every occasion and every life style
A walk in closet, the crown jewel of the bedroom
 

GADGETS

Take Elektor Fortissimo and make your own high-end amplifier

RangeXTD, a Wi-Fi extender that actually works
Monitor II A.N.C. headphones, iconic Marshall sound
Zebra TC15, a clever mix of a mobile phone and a computer for business use
Bathroom speakers will make your relaxing even better
NAD 399 amplifier, highly efficient and remarkably powerful
 

HEALTH

Ibuprofen and similar NSAIDS can be associated with hastened progression of osteoarthritis symptoms

Virgin Islands community encouraged to prevent antimicrobial resistance
Shionogi seeks Japan approval for COVID-19 vaccine
French doctors warn of antibiotics shortage
Merck's Keytruda shows survival benefit, meets main goal of gastric cancer trial
UK about fake vape factories: Consumers would be horrified if they saw the conditions in Chinese factories
 

MEANTIME

New European supercomputer inaugurated in Italy

European Space Agency presents new generation of astronauts
NASA selects Rocket Lab to launch TROPICS mission
World's heaviest flying bird heals itself with plants used in traditional medicine
James Webb Space Telescope reveals an exoplanet atmosphere as never seen before
U.S. to demolish four dams in river restoration effort