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Confidence drops to five-year low in Spain

Staff Writer |
The latest IHS Markit Business Outlook survey points to a loss of confidence among Spanish companies midway through 2018 as competitive pressures and political uncertainty weigh on sentiment.

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Firms are still broadly optimistic, however, that business activity will continue to rise over the next 12 months.

The headline Business Activity net balance is down to +35% in June, lower than the reading of +43% in February and pointing to the weakest confidence in five years.

A similar picture is evident across the eurozone as a whole, with sentiment falling from the start of the year.

Confidence is weaker across both the manufacturing and service sectors.

Manufacturing sentiment is the lowest since the February 2013 outlook survey, while services companies are the least confident for two years.

According to comments from panellists, competitive pressures and political instability are the main factors limiting optimism in June.

On the other hand, client demand remains buoyant, with new product development also set to support output growth over the coming year.

In line with the picture for output, optimism around both business revenues and new orders has dipped from the start of the year.

While confidence around business activity is markedly lower than at the start of the year, expectations around employment are relatively stable.

The net balance is down to +21%, slightly lower than in February but still in line with the eurozone average.

Investment intentions remain positive midway through the year, particularly in the service sector where optimism regarding capital expenditure is higher than was seen in February.

Manufacturers are less confident than their services counterparts, with net balances for both capital and R&D expenditure softening.

Spanish companies have revised up their expectations regarding input cost inflation in June, with the net balance the highest since early-2017.

This reflects the highest cost expectations in the service sector for around a decade.

While expectations around cost inflation are stronger than at the start of the year, output prices are set to rise at a slightly slower pace, likely reflecting the aforementioned concerns around competition.

Although down only marginally from February, the output prices net balance in June is the lowest since the October 2016 outlook survey.

The combination of stronger cost inflation and slower rises in output prices, coupled with weaker optimism in terms of workloads, has led to a drop in confidence regarding profits in June.

The net balance is at a twoyear low, although Spanish firms are still more optimistic than the euro area average.




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