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Global economic growth slowdown continues at start of 2019

Staff Writer |
The rate of global economic expansion eased to a near two-and-a-half-year low in January, as growth of new order inflows weakened and international trade in goods and services contracted.

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At 52.1 in January, down from 52.7 in December, J.P.Morgan Global Composite Output Index1,2 – which is produced by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted its lowest reading since September 2016.

Rates of expansion slowed in both the manufacturing (31-month low) and service (28-month low) sectors.

Growth in services business activity outpaced that of manufacturing production for the ninth month running.

Output expanded in three out of the six sub-industries covered by the survey during January.

The strongest rates of increase were seen in the business services and consumer goods sectors, with the former the only category to see growth accelerate.

Expansion was also seen at financial service provides, although the rate of increase slowed sharply to a four-year low.

National PMI data indicated that the US remained the main driver of global economic expansion.

Output growth slowed to a five-and-a-half-year low in the euro area, as increases in Germany, Spain and Ireland were offset by contractions in France and Italy.

Rates of expansion slowed in China, Japan, the UK, Brazil, Russia, Australia and Ireland.

Only Germany and Spain saw accelerated growth, although rates of increase steadied in both the US and India.

Inflows of new business rose at the slowest pace in twoand-a-half years during January.

Growth in manufacturing new orders slumped to near-stagnation, while new work at service providers rose at the weakest pace since September 2016.

New export business fell in both the manufacturing and service sectors.

January saw input price inflation ease to a 27-month low.

In contrast, the rate of increase in output charges accelerated slightly.

Rises in both price measures remained (on average) stronger in developed nations compared to emerging markets.

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