Global economic growth ticks higher at start of Q4
Staff Writer |
October saw a mild uptick in the rate of expansion of global economic output.
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The J.P.Morgan Global Composite Output Index – which is produced by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – rose to 53.0, up from September’s two-year low of 52.8, but still recorded its second-lowest reading since September 2016.
Output growth accelerated at service providers, but eased slightly at manufacturers.
Please note that, due to a later-than-usual release date, October readings from the Philippines PMI survey were not included in the global numbers.
The upturn remained broad-based by sub-industry in October, with business activity rising across the six sectors covered by the survey.
Growth accelerated in the business services, consumer goods and consumer services categories, but slowed in the financial services, intermediate goods and investment goods industries.
The US remained the prime driver of the expansion in global economic output.
US growth improved to a threemonth high, with rates of expansion solid at both manufacturers and service providers.
Germany, Ireland, France, Spain and Russia were the other nations to register a rate of expansion above the global average (with the latter three also seeing growth accelerate).
Economic activity rose at the fastest rates in six and three months respectively in Japan and India.
China, the UK and Australia all saw slower growth, while Italy contracted for the first time in almost four years and Brazil returned to expansion.
The rate of increase in incoming new business held steady at September’s 22-month low.
This was still sufficient to test capacity as backlogs of work rose for the twenty-seventh successive month.
This encouraged firms to raise employment, with the pace of job creation remaining above the survey average.
Staffing levels increased further in the euro area, the US, Japan, the UK and Australia.
Brazil and Russia registered higher employment following periods of reduction running for 43 and five months respectively.
Business optimism strengthened in October.
Positive sentiment moved to a four-month high, recovering from September’s two-year low.
The improvement in optimism was mainly centred on service providers, as confidence among manufacturers dipped to a series-record low. ■