Italy: Business confidence hits fresh multi-year high
Staff Writer |
The National Institute of Statistics (Istat) composite business confidence indicator (IESE, Istat Economic Sentiment Indicator) — which covers the manufacturing, construction, services and retail sectors — rose to 109.1 points in October.
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This is a solid increase from September’s reading of 108.1 points (previously reported: 108.0 points) and marking a fresh multi-year high.
Three of the four sub-categories of the indicator improved compared to September: manufacturing, services and retail sales. The constructions sector was the only sub-category to record a deterioration.
Manufacturing registered the best result in over ten years, supported by improved assessments of order books and better production expectations; retail sales confidence was buoyed by more positive assessments of current and future sales.
Lastly, while the services sector improved slightly, confidence in the construction sector suffered from weaker assessments of order books and construction plans.
Panelists expect fixed investment to increase 2.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2018, panelists see fixed investment growing 2.2%.
The National Institute of Statistics’ (Istat) consumer confidence index rose to 116.1 points in October, up from September’s revised 115.6 points (previously reported: 115.5) and comfortably beating market expectations of 114.9 points.
October’s reading reflected an improvement in consumers’ assessments of their current and future personal economic situation, as well as their improved assessment of the possibility to save now.
On the other hand, their perspectives of the country’s current and future economic situation deteriorated, as did their outlook on the possibility to save in the future.
The improvement in the consumers’ assessment of their personal situation could be due to the steady but moderate recovery the country is currently experiencing.
Nevertheless, the difficult financial situation the banking sector is undergoing and the likely prospect of a hung parliament resulting from next year’s general elections are sufficient reasons to take a skeptical view of the country’s situation.
Panelists expect private consumption to expand 1.0% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, panelists see private consumption growing 0.9%. ■