Polish PMI eases to four-month low, signalling slower growth
Staff Writer |
February PMI survey data signalled a further solid improvement in business conditions in Poland’s manufacturing sector, despite a slight loss of momentum since the start of 2018.
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New orders increased, but at the weakest rate in six months, leading to softer growth of output, purchasing and employment.
That said, growth rates for all four variables remained above their long-run averages, and backlogs rose further.
Similarly, inflationary pressures eased since January but remained strong overall.
The headline IHS Markit Poland Manufacturing PMI is a composite single-figure indicator of manufacturing performance.
It is derived from indicators for new orders, output, employment, suppliers’ delivery times and stocks of purchases.
Any figure greater than 50.0 indicates overall improvement of the sector.
The PMI fell to 53.7 in February, from 54.6 in January.
The latest figure was the lowest since last October but well above the long-run survey average of 50.6, signalling robust overall growth of the Polish manufacturing sector.
The current expansionary sequence, at 41 months, is the longest since the survey began in June 1998.
The downward movement in the PMI in February reflected slower growth of new orders, output and employment, and a decline in input stocks.
New business increased for the sixteenth successive month in February, but at the weakest rate since August 2017.
Firms continued to report improving demand from domestic and EU markets.
The softer rise in new work translated into the slowest gain in manufacturing output in four months in February.
That said, growth remained strong overall, and new business contributed to higher backlogs for the fifth time in seven months.
Manufacturers in Poland continued to expand their workforces in February.
Employment in the goodsproducing sector has increased every month since August 2013 except for a brief pause last September.
That said, the rate of job creation eased slightly since January.
Purchasing activity increased for the sixteenth successive month in February, contributing to another lengthening of supplier delivery times.
The rate of growth in buying activity eased to a fourmonth low, however.
Meanwhile, inventories of inputs declined for the first time in four months.
Inflationary pressures remained elevated in February but softened slightly.
Input and output prices both rose at some of the fastest rates seen over the last seven years, again linked to increased steel prices.
Expectations for output remained strong in February, despite easing since the start of 2018.
Firms mainly linked confidence to either received or expected new work. ■
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