Squeeze on UK household finances moderates in March
Staff Writer |
March data pointed to another downturn in UK household finances, but the degree of pressure on consumer budgets was the least marked so far in 2018.
Article continues below
This was signalled by a rise in the seasonally adjusted Household Finance Index (HFI) to 43.1, up from 42.4 in February and the highest reading since December 2017.
Any figure below 50.0 indicates an overall deterioration in household financial wellbeing. A combination of more favourable labour market conditions and a gradual easing in inflationary pressures appear to have helped to alleviate some of the strain on household finances.
In particular, latest data indicated one of the fastest rises in income from employment in the nine-year survey history (exceeded only by the upturn reported in July 2016). People aged 25-34 were the most likely to report an increase in their earnings.
This provides a signal that pay rises ahead of changes to the National Living Wage threshold had helped to boost the income from employment index in March.
Expectations for finances in the next 12 months UK households remain pessimistic (on balance) about the prospects for their financial wellbeing over the next 12 months. At 47.6 in March, the latest index reading was below the neutral 50.0 no-threshold but broadly unchanged from the levels seen so far in 2018.
People working in the private sector were close to their most upbeat since mid-2016, but those in the non-earning categories signalled the greatest degree of pessimism for almost a year-and-a-half. March data indicated positive developments in terms of pay, workplace activity and job insecurity.
At 52.3, up from 50.7 in February, the seasonally adjusted income from employment index was above the 50.0 no-change value for the fifth month running. Of the five age categories monitored by the survey, 25-34 year olds signalled by far the fastest rise in workplace income.
UK households remained downbeat overall about their job security in March. However, the seasonally adjusted index rose from 47.2 in February to a record-high of 48.8, which signalled the least widespread degree of job insecurity since the survey began in early-2009.
This partly reflected a sustained moderation in job insecurity among public sector employees, with the index for people working in Education/Health/Social services at the highest level in the survey history.
On the inflation front, households indicated another sharp rise in their living costs during March. However, the latest survey indicated the slowest overall increase in living costs since November 2017. At the same time, inflation expectations for the year ahead continued to ease from the peak seen in January.
At 88.9 in March, down from 90.0 in February, the seasonally adjusted index was the lowest for four months, but still above the average seen since the survey began in 2009.
March data indicated that a clear majority of UK households are braced for higher interest rates over the coming 12 months. Just over three-quarters of survey respondents (78%) anticipate a rise in the Bank of England base rate by March 2019.
Meanwhile, close to 57% of UK households expect a rate rise within the next six months. This is littlechanged from 60% in February and well above the average figure recorded since July 2013 (34%). ■