Norwegian industrial managers report an unchanged production level and an increment of new orders in the first quarter of 2018.
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The general outlook for the second quarter of 2018 is considered to be positive by the majority of industry leaders.
The business tendency survey for the fourth quarter of 2018 shows almost an unchanged level of production compared with the fourth quarter of 2017.
Manufacturers of capital goods and consumer goods report that production was roughly unchanged, while producers of intermediate goods report lower production in the first quarter of 2018.
The fall in the overall employment, which started in 2015, has slowed down and was reported in the first quarter of 2018 to be at the same level as the previous quarter.
There was an increase in employment for producers of intermediate goods but a decrease for producers of consumer goods and capital goods.
New orders from the export market show an increase in the first quarter of 2018. New orders from the domestic market and the total stock of orders also show an increase during this period.
Looking at the different industrial groupings, the producers of intermediate goods and capital goods show an increase in new orders both from the domestic and the export market.
For producers of consumer goods, there was an increase in new orders from the export market, while new orders from the domestic market show a decrease compared with the fourth quarter of 2017.
Prices went up for both export and domestic markets for the manufacturing industry in the first quarter. Producers of intermediate goods and consumer goods saw an increase in prices in both markets.
Underlying factors for the rise in prices for these industrial groupings were increased prices on basic metals and food products. For producers of capital goods, there was still a negative trend in prices in both markets.
The requirement for oil companies to reduce development and maintenance costs, and fierce competition among suppliers to the oil and gas industry are still likely explanations for the downturn in prices for this grouping.
The general outlook for the second quarter of 2018 is clearly positive. Industry leaders report that investment plans are adjusted upwards and employment is expected to increase.
They expect new orders from both the domestic market and export market to increase. The total stock of orders is also expected to rise. Producers of capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods are all optimistic in their assessment about the second quarter of 2018.
The industrial confidence indicator for the first quarter of 2018 was 6.3 (seasonally-adjusted net figures), which is about the same level as in the previous quarter.
This is the fifth consecutive quarter where the indicator is positive and the indicator is well above the historical average.
Values above zero indicate that total output will grow in the forthcoming quarter, while values below zero indicate that total output will fall.
The average capacity utilisation for Norwegian manufacturing shows the same level as in the previous quarter and was calculated to 77.9 percent at the end of the first quarter of 2018.
This is below the historical average of 80.2 percent. ■