Thailand expands fastest in five years in Q1
Economic activity increased 4.8% over a year ago in the first quarter; the result was above the prior quarter’s solid 4.0% annual expansion.
Moreover, the print also easily beat market expectations of a more moderate 4.0% year-on-year increase.
On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, the economy grew 2.0%, also stepping up pace from the prior quarter (Q4: +0.5% quarter-on-quarter).
On an annual basis, the domestic economy did the heavy lifting in the quarter, as the external sector’s performance moderated somewhat.
Household expenditure increased 3.6% in the first quarter, coming in above the prior quarter’s 3.4% increase.
The slight increase in private consumption reflected growth in non-farming income and a recovery in farming income.
Low inflationary pressures and higher consumer sentiment further buttressed private expenditure.
Public consumption, meanwhile, shifted into a higher gear thanks to an expansion in the purchase of goods and services and an increased wage bill.
Government expenditure grew 1.9%, significantly above the prior quarter’s meager growth rate of 0.2%.
Finally, fixed investment rebounded strongly (Q1: +3.4% yoy: Q4: +0.3% yoy), on greater public and private investment.
Public investment expanded for the first time following three consecutive quarterly contractions, chiefly reflecting increased investment in machinery and equipment.
On the external side of the economy, growth in exports and imports continued, although the pace of expansion in exports moderated from the prior quarter.
In the first quarter, exports of goods and services increased 6.0%, down from the fourth quarter’s stronger 7.4% expansion, mainly reflecting a contraction in agricultural exports.
Goods and services imports picked up pace, expanding 9.0% in the first quarter (Q4: +7.5% year-on-year)—in part owing to greater consumer and capital goods imports.
This year the economy is expected grow at a robust pace on the back of healthy domestic demand, buttressed by strong growth in public consumption and fixed investment.
However, the reliance on the external sector poses a key risk to the economic panorama, amid increasing geopolitical and trade tensions.
In addition, export growth should moderate this year because of a large base effect: The external sector recorded a stellar performance last year that will be hard to top.
The strength of the baht will also be closely watched as it is a risk to export competitiveness.
Despite potential clouds on the horizon, the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel expects the economy to grow 3.9% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate.
For 2019, the panel foresees the economy expanding 3.7%.
At the opening of the second quarter, Thailand’s external sector recorded its second trade deficit of the year, with imports growing at a stronger pace than exports.
In April, the trade balance recorded a deficit of $1.3 billion, in sharp contrast to the prior month’s $1.3 billion surplus.
In the same month a year ago, Thailand recorded a small surplus of $50 million.
In addition, the 12-month sum of the trade balance fell from $11.8 billion in March to $10.5 billion in April.
The trade deficit came amid stronger-than-expected export growth as exports expanded 12.3% year-on-year, above the 11.3% figure markets had expected and markedly above the prior month’s 7.1% expansion.
The pick-up in exports came on the back of increased foreign demand for cars, equipment and components; and computer equipment and components.
There was also robust demand for rubber products, as well as for gems and jewelry.
Most of the foreign demand came from China, the United States and Japan.
Imports, meanwhile, grew at a quicker pace of 20.4% in the month (March: +9.5% year-on-year).
In 2018, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to increase 6.3%, and the trade surplus to reach $22.9 billion.
For 2019, panelists forecast exports will expand 5.4% and the trade surplus will reach $20.8 billion. ■