U.S. economists expect recession in 2021
Christian Fernsby ▼ | August 19, 2019
A number of U.S. business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Donald Trump's economic policies that they expect a recession in the United States by the end of 2021.Article continues below
Topics: U.S. RECESSION
Thirty-four percent of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report being released on Monday, said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021.
That's up from 25% in a survey taken in February.
Only 2% of those polled expect a recession to begin this year, while 38% predict that it will occur in 2020, AP reported.
The economists have previously expressed concern that Trump's tariffs and higher budget deficits could eventually dampen the economy.
The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on goods from many key U.S. trading partners from China and Europe to Mexico and Canada.
Officials maintain that the tariffs, which are taxes on imports, will help the administration gain more favorable terms of trade.
But U.S. trading partners have simply retaliated with tariffs of their own.
The economists surveyed by the NABE were skeptical about prospects for success of the latest round of US-China trade negotiations.
Only 5% predicted that a comprehensive trade deal would result, 64% suggested a superficial agreement was possible, and nearly one quarter expected nothing to be agreed upon by the two countries.
The 226 respondents, who work mainly for corporations and trade associations, were surveyed between mid-July 14 and early August.
It was before the White House announced 10% tariffs on the additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, the Chinese currency dipped below the seven-yuan-to-$1 level for the first time in 11 years, and the Trump administration formally labeled China a currency manipulator. ■ What to read next
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