COPD epidemic could overwhelm Canadian healthcare systems in two decades
Staff Writer |
Health authorities should brace themselves for an epidemic of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) over the next two decades, despite a decline in smoking rates.
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This is according to a new study from the University of British Columbia.
COPD is a progressive lung disease associated with smoking, air pollution and age. To predict future rates of the disease, researchers conducted forecasting analyses, combining population statistics and health data for the province of B.C.
They concluded that between 2010 and 2030, the number of COPD cases in the province will increase by more than 150 percent—despite decreased rates of smoking. Among seniors over 75 years of age, rates of COPD will more than triple, increasing by 220 percent. The staggering figures astonished even the researchers.
“Everyone who has seen the results has been surprised,†said senior author Dr. Mohsen Sadatsafavi, assistant professor in the faculties of pharmaceutical sciences and medicine.
“Many people think that COPD will soon be a problem of the past, because smoking is declining in the industrialized world. But aging is playing a much bigger role, and this is often ignored. We expect these B.C.-based predictions to be applicable to Canada and many other industrialized countries.â€
Lead author Amir Khakban, health economist in the faculty of pharmaceutical sciences at UBC and the Centre for Health Evaluation and Outcome Sciences, said age-adjusted COPD rates have remained constant as smoking rates have declined. “This pattern, along with an aging population and a decrease in mortality rates, is responsible for the alarming growth in the burden of COPD,†he said.
While other diseases of aging are expected to increase over the coming decades, the researchers say COPD will overtake them all. The associated health-care costs of caring for these patients will be significant.
The study predicts that annual inpatient days related to COPD will grow by 185 percent.
It’s a burden the health-care system is not equipped to deal with, said co-author Dr. Don Sin, professor in UBC department of medicine’s division of respiratory medicine and head of respiratory medicine at St. Paul’s Hospital. ■