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NEWLY REPORTED COVID-19 CASES (11.19.2021, 4:50pm CEST, WHO):   India 11,106    Brazil 11,977    United Kingdom 46,858    Russia 37,156    Turkey 22,234    France 19,840    Argentina 1,553    Germany 52,970    Spain 3,932    Columbia 2,257    Italy 10,645    Mexico 3,836    Ukraine 20,050    Poland 23,242    Philippines 1,297    Malaysia 6,380    Netherlands 23,680    Peru 1,370    Thailand 6,855    Czechia 13,374    Canada 2,448    Romania 3,076    Chile 2,611    Serbia 3,219    Sweden 1,210    Portugal 2,398    Vietnam 10,223    Kazakhstan 1,272    Austria 14,212    Hungary 11,289    Greece 7,276    Georgia 4,278    Bulgaria 2,785    Belarus 1,844    Slovakia 7,418    Azerbaijan 2,124    Croatia 7,270    Bolivia 1,119    Ireland 4,646    Lithuania 1,847    Denmark 4,013    South Korea 3,034    Slovenia 3,662    Latvia 1,221    Laos 1,401    China 31    New Zealand 200    Australia 1,302   

Researcher: Travel halt won't stop Wuhan coronavirus, 250,000 Chinese will have it

Christian Fernsby |

KEY POINTS
  • A 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced 24.9%
  • Fourteen people who underwent tests for coronavirus in the UK are clear
  • UK officials want to trace 2000 people

UK researcher Jonathan M. Read says that Wuhan coronavirus infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate.

Article continues below



Topics: WUHAN    CORONAVIRUS   

As a result, in 10 days time, or by February 4, 2020, Reed's model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250 thousand (with an prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396).

"Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February.

"Our findings are critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage.

"With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult."

Fourteen people who underwent tests for coronavirus in the UK have been given the all-clear, it has been confirmed.

However England's Chief Medical Officer, Professor Chris Whitty, said there is still a "fair chance" Britain will see cases emerge.

Now the BBC has reported that officials want to trace 2000 people who have flown to the UK from China over the past few weeks, in order to check their wellbeing.


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