Researcher: Travel halt won't stop Wuhan coronavirus, 250,000 Chinese will have it
Christian Fernsby ▼ | January 24, 2020
A 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced 24.9%
Fourteen people who underwent tests for coronavirus in the UK are clear
UK officials want to trace 2000 people UK researcher Jonathan M. Read says that Wuhan coronavirus infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate.Article continues below
Topics: WUHAN CORONAVIRUS
As a result , in 10 days time, or by February 4, 2020, Reed's model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250 thousand (with an prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396).
"Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February.
"Our findings are critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage.
"With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult."
Fourteen people who underwent tests for coronavirus in the UK have been given the all-clear, it has been confirmed.
However England's Chief Medical Officer, Professor Chris Whitty, said there is still a "fair chance" Britain will see cases emerge.
Now the BBC has reported that officials want to trace 2000 people who have flown to the UK from China over the past few weeks, in order to check their wellbeing. ■ What to read next
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