A trio of environmental scientists argue that the only way to avoid to be forced out of their homes by the droughts, floods, fires and famines is to start planning now for the inevitable retreat from coastal cities.
"Faced with global warming, rising sea levels, and the climate-related extremes they intensify, the question is no longer whether some communities will retreat but why, where, when, and how they will retreat," the authors of the paper wrote.
Rather than dealing with these forced migrations on a reactive, disaster-by-disaster basis (as many emergency evacuations do now), the researchers propose taking a "managed and strategic" approach to the problem, setting up policies and infrastructure now to help climate refugees transition into new homes and out of harm's way as soon as possible.
The steps to accomplish this task range from the commonsense to the incredibly complex. For instance, the authors want to build infrastructure that maintains the cultural heritage of marginalized communities that wind up having to leave ancestral homes.
"Retreat may exacerbate historic wrongs if it relocates or destroys historically marginalized communities," the researchers wrote. "Conversations around who should pay for retreat will almost certainly need to address reasons why certain communities find themselves at risk."
the researchers wrote, retreat could be an opportunity to revitalize communities and redistribute wealth in a more sustainable way. For example, it could be a chance to end real estate practices that incentivize living in at-risk areas.
"One proposal for Bangladesh suggests investing in a dozen cities to provide infrastructure along with educational and employment opportunities to draw successive generations of people away from low-lying coasts," the authors wrote. "Retreat is not a goal in and of itself, but a means of contributing to societal goals."
While widespread evacuation of climate-prone communities may not occur for a decade or more, the only way to prepare for this unprecedented global challenge is to start planning now. ■