Europe's cities face more extreme weather than previously thought
Staff Writer |
New research, by Newcastle University, UK, has for the first time analysed changes in flooding, droughts and heatwaves for all European cities using all climate models.
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Using projections from all available climate models (associated with the high emission scenario RCP8.5 which implies a 2.6°C to 4.8°C increase in global temperature), the team showed results for three possible futures which they called the low, medium and high impact scenarios.
The study shows that even the most optimistic of these - the low impact scenario - predicts both the number of heatwave days and their maximum temperature will increase for all European cities.
Southern European cities will see the biggest increases in the number of heatwave days, while central European cities will see the greatest increase in temperature during heatwaves - between 2°C to 7°C for the low scenario and 8°C to 14°C for the high scenario.
For changes in droughts and floods, the cities which are affected depend on the scenario. For the low impact scenario, drought conditions only intensify in southern European cities while river flooding only worsens in north-western ones.
The British Isles have some of the worst overall flood projections. Even in the most optimistic scenario, 85% of UK cities with a river - including London - are predicted to face increased river flooding, while for the high scenario, half of UK cities could see at least a 50% increase on peak river flows.
The cities predicted to be worst hit under the high impact scenario are Cork, Derry, Waterford, Wrexham, Carlisle and Glasgow and for the more optimistic, low impact, scenario are Derry, Chester, Carlisle, Aberdeen, Glasgow and Newcastle.
By 2051-2100, for the low impact scenario, cities in the south of Iberia, such as Malaga and Almeria, are expected to experience droughts more than twice as bad as in 1951-2000. While for the high impact scenario, 98% of European cities could see worse droughts in the future and cities in Southern Europe may experience droughts up to 14 times worse than today. ■