Surprising discovery: Tree rings could predict volcanic eruptions
Staff Writer |
Scientists made a surprising discovery on their mission to find better indicators for impending volcanic eruptions: it looks like tree rings may be able to predict eruptions.
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This is according to the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL and the ETH Zurich.
The line reflects the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): the higher the value, the more vegetation is thriving in the area. But what made the discovery really astonishing is the fact that the volcano erupted along that exact line just one year later.
Dendrochronologists agree that NDVI values are connected to tree growth, and thus reflected in tree-ring width.
Their unusual idea - namely that tree rings give information about volcanic processes prior to eruptions - has now been published in the journal Scientific Reports.
The rings formed in tree trunks during trees' growth periods are valuable repositories of environmental information: the ring width reflects the tree's growth conditions, which are a combination of the temperature, precipitation and nutrient conditions during a given growing season.
"The ring width may also be influenced by volcanic activity on Mount Etna and in other volcanic regions," speculates Seiler.
Under Cherubini's direction, the researchers conducted their initial fieldwork alongside the lava flows that ran down Mount Etna's west flank in January 1974.
This was the location where Italian researchers also spotted an anomaly on satellite images in 1973, prior to the eruption.
Seiler took over fifty tree samples in the aim of identifying any pre-eruptive signals in the tree rings.
However, the researchers found that the tree rings for summer 1973 were neither exceptionally wide nor exceptionally narrow.
"If volcanic activity does influence tree rings, then the pre-eruptive phase of the 1974 eruption can only have begun when the trees had already ceased their seasonal growth," concludes Seiler.
That said, the calculated duration of the pre-eruptive phase - which would be just a few months in this case - is actually consistent with the results of earlier geochemical and geophysical studies.
Although there were no changes to the trees' growth before the 1974 eruption, the researchers' article in Scientific Reports points out that the trees grew less in the two summers following the eruption than in other years.
This is significant because a volcano's past behaviour can provide information about its future activities and thus contribute to improving measures to protect the population.
Thanks to real-time monitoring with GPS, seismometers and gas monitoring devices, the eruptions of the last twenty years are well documented.
By contrast, volcanic eruptions occurring in the 2,000 years before that cannot be dated reliably, while the dates of even older volcanic events can be determined relatively accurately using the C14 method.