Over the next few days, a deep upper-level trough and its associated cold front will continue to push south and east through the western and central U.S., producing a variety of hazardous weather types through midweek.
In the near term, this includes strong and gusty winds across portions of central and southern California, southern Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, where high wind warnings and wind advisories remain in effect.
Widespread wind gusts of 45-55 mph are expected, with the potential for even stronger gusts, especially across the higher terrain of the southern Sierra and the Southern California mountains into the evening hours.
Meanwhile, a burst of light to moderate snow is likely to spread south behind the cold front from the Intermountain West to the northern Rockies this evening, before entering the Southwest, the central to southern Rockies and central High Plains by early Wednesday.
Farther east, strong southerly winds ahead of the front are supporting another day of well-above average temperatures across much of the central and southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley.
This combination of strong winds and above normal temperatures, along with dry conditions, is producing dangerous fire weather conditions across portions of the region, with Red Flag warnings remaining in effect for parts of the southern and central Plains, and the lower Mississippi Valley into this evening.
Sustained windy and dry conditions are expected to support critical fire weather conditions lingering into Wednesday across portions of the southern High Plains.
By Wednesday night and into Thursday, the aforementioned upper-level trough is forecast to eject into the Southern Plains.
Low pressure is expected to develop over the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma along before tracking northeastward along the associated cold front as it advances across the Mississippi Valley.
While precise details remain uncertain, significant winter weather impacts appear probable on the north side of the system.
This includes a stripe of impactful snow that is most likely to stretch from south-central Kansas through central Missouri, northern Illinois, and into central Michigan.
A wintry mix, including areas of sleet and freezing rain, will like fall just to the south of the heaviest axis of snow, but uncertainty remains regarding where exactly the transition zone will set.
On the warm side of the system, rich atmospheric moisture streaming out of the Gulf of Mexico and into the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley will fuel the potential for areas of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms.
As the advancing cold front clashes with the warm and moist airmass Wednesday night, a line of thunderstorms may develop across North Texas and Oklahoma.
The potential exists for storms to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes in this region.
The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for North Texas and central to eastern Oklahoma.
The severe weather threat is expected to shift eastward along the cold front and into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-South and Southeast on Thursday.
With plenty of moisture to work with, the threat of heavy rain also exists from parts of the southern Plains to the Appalachians through Thursday.
There are expected to be two main modes of heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding; the first is associated with intense rainfall rates related to thunderstorms and the second is related to widespread heavy rain along the strong cold front.
Both are expected to lead to isolated flooding concerns.
Thunderstorm-induced heavy rain is most likely across the southernmost affected areas, particularly from the southern Plains to the southern Appalachians between Wednesday night and Thursday night.
Farther north, flood watches are in effect from portions of central Illinois and across much of Indiana into the eastern Great Lakes, where the combination of heavy rain along with melting snow is expected to cause flooding concerns. ■