Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Mid-South, lower/middle Mississippi Valley, and Lower Ohio Valley.
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Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, widespread and potentially significant damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail are likely especially within the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas.
A strong upper low and active mid-level jet over the center of the CONUS will continue to amplify today, keeping strong flow over the Southwest and southern High Plains.
At the surface, a cold front moving through the Plains early this morning will scour surface moisture resulting in very dry airmass.
Strong westerly winds and dry conditions will support active fire weather conditions within dry fuels.
As the upper trough/low over the Plains/Midwest continues to lift away, strong northwesterly flow aloft will fill in across the Southwest and southern High Plains.
Progression of the upper-level system has generally been slower than previous guidance, suggesting some misalignment between the strongest winds and diurnal heating.
While winds will be slightly weaker/delayed, frequent gusts to 35 mph along with strong subsidence and downsloping should still favor extremely dry surface conditions.
Model soundings showing mean mixed-layer RH values as low as 2-3% coincident with the winds which should support widespread Critical fire weather conditions within extremely dry fuels.
The highest confidence in winds of 30+ mph appears to be across far eastern NM closer to the ejecting mid-level jet.
While confidence is lower, a few hours of localized Extremely Critical conditions may occur within a corridor from eastern NM through the southwestern TX Panhandle.
Dry and windy conditions should develop for a few hours across the central High Plains and lee of the Rockies in the dry post-frontal airmass as strong flow aloft lingers over the Rockies.
While surface temperatures should be cooling, low relative humidity and gusty winds should support downsloping and drying with RH of 10-20% likely.
Elevated and Critical fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours before the arrival of cooler temperatures and higher humidity later in the evening and overnight. ■
Modified arctic air combined with a moisture-laden area of low pressure along the Gulf Coast will continue to allow for a broad area of winter weather impacts from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast today into early Saturday morning.