The central United States will have no shortage of active weather through the end of this week as chances for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding span each day, while including a majority of the Great Plains.
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A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect for the Lower Mississippi Valley through early Thursday morning, as renewed convective development Wednesday evening will likely lead to another round of heavy rainfall initially focused on the ArkLaTex.
These storms are forecast to continue eastward while expanding southeastward through the Lower Mississippi Valley later into the day Thursday, with a continued Slight Risk (level 2/4) in effect.
A moisture-rich environment will help to fuel intense, heavy rain rates on already saturated soils from rainfall earlier today, leading to the concern for flash flooding.
Meanwhile, a deep upper-level trough/closed low traversing the Southwest and southern Rockies will aid in a developing storm system over the central High Plains that will help fuel the chances for numerous showers and thunderstorms throughout the northern and central Plains through the end of the week.
Plentiful atmospheric moisture content surging northward throughout the Great Plains combined with upslope enhancement in the High Plains will allow for heavy rainfall and scattered flash flood concerns across much of the central/northern High Plains on Thursday, prompting a broad Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall for the region.
Additionally, thunderstorms may turn severe for this region while also extending south into Oklahoma.
The Storm Prediction Center has also introduced an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather focused on western Kansas into central Oklahoma as a favorable combination of CAPE as well as deep and low-level shear has increased chances these storms may produce large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, including the possibility of significant tornadoes.
The severe weather threat will shift into Mid-Missouri Valley Friday as the system gradually moves to the east.
The heavy rain/flash flood threat will also likely linger further west for portions of the Northern Plains under the influence of the upper low, with the potential locally for multiple inches of additional rainfall on wet ground conditions from Thursday.
The next round of excessive rainfall to impact the Lone Star State is set to enter south-central portions of the region on Friday and linger into the weekend.
The main impacts through early Saturday are anticipated to be associated with the heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat.
Although this part of the country is designated as being within severe to exceptional drought, the signal for areal average rainfall of several inches has been persistent, which would expectedly prompt at least scattered if not numerous flash flooding chances.
As a result, a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for parts of south-central Texas and the Hill Country.
Outside of the influence of the central U.S.
system, a significant warming trend is expected along the West Coast/adjacent Interior West heading into the weekend.
Temperatures will begin to rise 10-20 degrees above average Friday, with highs reaching into the mid- to upper 80s as far north as Oregon.
This will only be the start of an early season heat wave focused on the Pacific Northwest this weekend.
Above average temperatures will also shift from the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Thursday-Friday.
Most highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s across the region Thursday, with mid-80s forecast for the Mid-Atlantic Friday.
Elsewhere, highs will be near to above average for the South, with 80s expected for most locations.
The Northern/Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains will be the one cool spot as highs remain in the 50s and 60s under the influence of the upper-trough/closed low and widespread precipitation. ■
A clipper system will move quickly across the northern Plains into the Midwest Friday and the Northeast by Saturday, bringing a wintry mix of rain and snow showers ahead of a sweeping cold front.