Showers and thunderstorms continue to expand across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast tonight ahead of an occluded low pressure system lifting northward out of the Gulf of Mexico.
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The warm front lifting northward with this low will act as a catalyst to maintain and develop thunderstorm activity across much of the Southeast today, and over the Carolinas tomorrow.
Localized rainfall totals of 2-4" across the Southeast within training bands of thunderstorms could yield isolated instances of flash flooding across portions of the Southeast through southeast Florida today.
Although the chance of excessive rainfall is low (threat level 1/4 on the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook), the forecast will need to be monitored over South Florida, which saw very localized but catastrophic flash flooding across the Miami metro yesterday afternoon and evening and could be especially sensitive to additional rains.
By tomorrow, dry air wrapping around the system should result in improving conditions across the Southeast, while the showers and thunderstorms migrate into the Carolinas, where a flash flood or two is possible with rainfall totals reaching 2-3" inches in spots.
Severe weather is also a concern with this system across the Southeast, as the Storm Prediction Center continues to monitor for the potential for a few tornadoes, severe hail, and wind with the activity later today.
Farther west, a sharp upper-level trough over the Northwest and developing storm system over the central High Plains is supporting ongoing moderate to heavy snowfall across portions of southwest Montana, which should spread toward the Yellowstone region of northwest Wyoming today.
The forecast looks to be on track for over a foot of snow in the higher elevations in these areas, while lower elevations could also see a few inches.
By tomorrow, upslope flow spurred by a strong cold front will also spur heavy mountain snows across the western Colorado Rockies, where upwards of a foot could fall atop the highest mountain peaks.
East of the Rockies, a developing dry line across the Heartland will support some severe weather stretching across the Plains States today and tomorrow, which spreads into the Mississippi Valley by Saturday ahead of the cold front.
Severe hail and wind appear to be the main threats with this bout of severe weather, although isolated tornadoes are also possible tomorrow across central Kansas.
Meanwhile, well-above average to record-breakingly warm temperatures are forecast to continue from the Midwest throughout the Great Lakes and into the Northeast over the next few days.
Warm air flowing around an anomalous upper-level ridge over the eastern half of the Nation will allow for the summer-like warmth and widespread highs into the 70s and 80s.
Numerous daily high temperature records are forecast on Thursday from Wisconsin to southern New England.
Additionally, dry vegetation, low relative humidity, and gusty winds may lead to critical fire weather conditions today and tomorrow across the Southern and Central High Plains. ■
A hyperactive weather pattern will bring an expansive low pressure system across mainland U.S., resulting in widespread impactful weather to progress from west to east across the country through the next few days.