A powerful spring storm system is expected to impact much of the central and southeastern U.S. into the beginning of the week, with a multitude of weather hazards.
Setting the stage for this active period of weather will be a deep upper-level trough traversing the Intermountain West today and eventually closing off into an upper-level low over the Southern Rockies by Monday.
At the surface, a potent cold front pushing eastward with the associated upper-level trough is forecast to reach the central and southern Plains by Monday as an area of low pressure develops over the southern High Plains.
Meanwhile, southerly winds ahead of the system will surge an ample amount of atmospheric moisture content from over the western Gulf of Mexico and into the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley.
As the cold front and leading dry line push eastward over central Texas on Monday, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to blossom over eastern Texas and Oklahoma.
Thunderstorms are likely to turn severe from the Texas Hill Country to the Upper Texas Coast.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts may accompany the thunderstorms.
The threat of tornadoes also exists, with a few strong tornadoes possible into the evening and overnight hours.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms for this region on Monday.
Additionally, the widespread thunderstorm activity is also expected to produce heavy rain and instances of flash flooding.
Several inches of rain falling over a short period of time will likely lead to flash flooding concerns over parts of East Texas and far northwest Louisiana on Monday.
A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall has been issued here to highlight the potential hazard.
The severe weather and flash flooding threat shifts slightly eastward on Tuesday, but does not diminish in intensity.
Strong thunderstorms and extended periods of intense rainfall are likely to impact parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and eventually parts of the Southeast by Tuesday night.
More specifically, SPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms from southern Louisiana to southern Mississippi on Tuesday.
A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is also in effect on Tuesday over portions of northeast Louisiana, Mississippi, and west-central Alabama.
Residents from the Southern Plains to the Southeast are urged to check their local forecast and have multiple ways to receive warnings, including overnight.
Another aspect to this dynamic storm system will be the potential for dangerous fire weather conditions over the central and southern High Plains.
Gusty winds and low relative humidity ahead of the approaching cold front will lead to Critical Fire Weather today from south-central Nebraska to southern New Mexico, before shifting into southwest Texas on Monday.
Red Flag Warnings are also in effect and cover a large area where new wildfires will have the potential to spread uncontrollably.
Additionally, winter weather will also be included in the list of hazards associated with this system.
Moderate to locally heavy snow will be found along and behind the cold front currently pushing across the Intermountain West.
Moderate snowfall may also extend into parts of the central High Plains on Monday and Monday night as the cold front surges into the Southern Plains and the surface low pressure system deepens.
By Tuesday, light precipitation is forecast to extend into the Upper Midwest and fall in the form of snow across northern areas.
Gusty winds are also expected over the mountainous terrain behind the cold front through Monday, which has prompted High Wind Warnings/Watches and Wind Advisories to be issued.
Strong Winds are also possible over much of the Great Plains by Tuesday as the low pressure system enters the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Elsewhere, continued onshore flow will lead to coastal/lower elevation rain and heavy mountain snow over the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday.
Outside of a few rain/snow showers in the Northeast and scattered showers over Florida today, much of the eastern U.S. will enjoy a tranquil start to the week. ■