Current satellite and RADAR trends denote a symmetric low pressure across western North Dakota drawing higher moisture north and west across much of Montana and northern North Dakota with much of it falling as snow through the remainder of Wednesday.
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Highest snow amounts are expected across the Little Belt, Big Snowy and Judith Mountain ranges in central MT, as well as the far northeast and northwest corners of Montana and North Dakota, respectively.
This low will spin down wobbling slowly across northwest North Dakota.
Further south and east, there is a growing potential for strong to severe thunderstorms today (Wednesday) into the overnight period associated with a cold front and dry line extending from Nebraska/Iowa across Kansas into the Southern Plains, as the stronger upper-level energy rolls out of the Rockies into the Plains this afternoon.
The favorable elements for very large hail, strong winds and possible tornadoes will exist and around the frontal zone.
As such the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe weather along the eastern Nebraska/Kansas boarder into far Southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri with a Slight Risk surrounding it across much of Iowa as well as extending along the dry line across central Kansas to the Red River.
Some of these thunderstorms should have higher rain-rates and pose the potential for incidents of flash flooding, with best potential/coverage near the Nebraska/Iowa/Missouri/Kansas quad-state region; as highlighted by the upgrade to a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) through tomorrow morning.
More isolated incidents may extend into Iowa, southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin where ground conditions are a bit more saturated given recent snow melt and swollen rivers/streams.
Behind the dryline across the Southern High Plains, strong winds and dry/hot weather continue to pose a Critical Fire weather risk as forecast by the SPC, across much of New Mexico and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and adjacent regions of Colorado and southwest Kansas and western Oklahoma.
Red Flag Warnings are posted for much of this area, any fires could rapidly spread given this dry high wind environment.
As the cold front pushes through Wednesday evening, winds will be weaker on Thursday; however, dry grounds and sufficient winds will keep Elevated to Critical Fire Danger in place across much of New Mexico for Thursday as well.
By Thursday morning into the afternoon, the enhanced moisture and lift will spread across the Upper Midwest in association with the deepening surface low.
This low will reach the Upper Mississippi Valley and increase the potential for heavy snowfall across northern North Dakota and Minnesota, while the modest rainfall over the saturated grounds of Wisconsin, Northern Illinois and eastern Iowa will remain under the threat of isolated flash flooding risk as noted by a broad Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall from WPC.
As the day progresses, unstable air will once again lie along/ahead of the cold front that has advanced toward the Middle Mississippi Valley back into Eastern Oklahoma/central Texas.
Strong thunderstorms will once again develop with high potential of excessive rain-rates and severe weather potential.
Both WPC and SPC have issued a Slight Risk for much of a similar area along/ahead of the front from northeast Texas, Arkansas, to the Tri-Rivers area of Southeast MO/far W Kentucky.
Severe winds, hail, isolated tornadoes and scattered incidents of flash flooding are possible across this region through Thursday evening into Friday morning.
Similarly on Friday into the evening, similar conditions will shift into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Upper Texas Coast, with both WPC and SPC having a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall and Severe Weather Outlooks posted for day 3.
Elsewhere, very warm conditions will spread across the Ohio Valley & Mid-Atlantic today through Friday.
Dry ground conditions and low relative humidities have resulted in a Red Flag Warning being posted for all of New Jersey today.
While temperatures further increase on Thursday with mid to upper 80s across the Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, it will be accompanied by higher moisture.
This will reduce the threat for fires, but increase the risk for heat related issues, such as heat exhaustion or dehydration.
By Friday, a few daily records are at risk of being broken as temps remain 15-20 degrees above normal and may even peak up into the low 90s.
For the Pacific Northwest, a fast moving, strong but weakening low will track north of Vancouver Island late on Thursday into Friday.
This will bring stronger winds and a good chance of light to moderate rainfall with some snows along the highest elevations of the Cascade Range of Washington and Oregon on Friday. ■