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U.S.: Enhanced risk of severe storms for Southern High Plains

Christian Fernsby |
On Sunday, a strong storm over the Upper Mississippi Valley will slowly move northeastward to James Bay, Canada, by Monday evening.

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The associated front will move from the Great Lake/Central Gulf Coast to off most of the East Coast by Monday evening.

The associated front will destabilize the atmosphere producing showers and thunderstorms from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast on Sunday.

Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Eastern Ohio Valleys, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic through Monday morning.

The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, moderate to heavy rain will develop over parts of the Central Appalachians.

Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over the area through Monday morning.

The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Moreover, on Sunday, upper-level energy and a second front will move out of the Central Rockies onto the Southern Plains.

On Sunday morning, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will move northwestward over the Southern Plains.

The associated boundary and moisture will aid in destabilizing the atmosphere producing showers and thunderstorms from the Central High Plains to the Southern Plains starting in the afternoon and going overnight into Monday morning.

Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Southern High Plains through Monday morning.

The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, there is an increased risk of large hail, two inches or greater over the area.

Furthermore, the moderate to heavy rain associated with the thunderstorm will cause excessive rainfall.

Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains through Monday morning.

The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

On Monday, the system continues to move eastward over the Central/Southern Plains into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday.

The showers and thunderstorms will also move into the region as the moisture and the boundary continues to destabilize the atmosphere.

Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains on Monday into Tuesday morning.

The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

However, there is an increased risk for EF2 to EF5 tornadoes and large hail, two inches or greater over the area on Monday into Tuesday morning.

In addition, the threat of excessive rainfall increases over parts of the Central/Southern Plains from Monday into Tuesday morning.

Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from Monday into Tuesday morning.

The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams being the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, by Sunday evening, upper-level energy and associated front will move over the Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin into the Central Rockies.

The energy will aid in producing rain and highest elevation snow over the region through early Monday morning.

Overnight Sunday, another front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest, moving inland to the Central Rockies/Southwest by Tuesday.

The system will produce coastal rain and highest elevation snow over the Pacific Northwest early Monday morning, moving into parts of the Northern Rockies and Great Basin by Tuesday morning.

Furthermore, the SPC has issued a Critical Risk of fire weather over the Southwest and Southern Rockies on Sunday.

The fire weather threat is due to gusty winds, dry fuels, and low relative humidity.

On Monday, the threat of fire weather continues over parts of the Southern Rockies.


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