The weather pattern for Father's Day weekend features a highly amplified jet stream pattern with a pair of anomalous upper troughs setting up shop over the West Coast and Northeast.
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Sandwiched in between is a building heat dome in the form of an upper level ridge over the Nation's Heartland and extending on south to the Gulf Coast.
The hottest temperatures versus normal over the weekend will be situated in the Northern and Central Plains where daytime highs will range between 20-30 degrees above normal and record breaking heat is expected.
Record heat is also possible in the Southeast and along the Mid-Atlantic coast today where daytime highs from the mid-90s to right around the century mark are forecast.
Combined with dew points as high as the low 70s in parts of the Southeast, steamy heat indices will soar as high as 110 degrees.
Heat Advisories have been issued for these areas that are forecast to see heat indices between 100-110 degrees today.
By Saturday, triple digit high temps become focused along the Gulf Coast and in the Northern and Central Plains.
In contrast, the pair of aforementioned troughs will keep temperatures seasonably cool in the Northeast and along the West Coast.
In fact, by Saturday some parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern New England will struggle to get above 60 degrees! These upper troughs linger into Father's Day, forcing temperatures to remain cooler and more comfortable for dads along the West Coast and into the Northeast.
Meanwhile, the stifling heat looks to stick around in the Heartland on Father's Day.
Father's Day weekend does look to be stormy for a handful of regions across the Lower 48.
Starting in the East, a cold front tracking through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Mid-South today will be responsible for producing areas of showers and thunderstorms from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Southeast.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe storms from the southern Appalachians to the Southeast coast.
There is also a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall from southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina to eastern Kentucky and Tennessee where thunderstorms may cause flash flooding.
To the north, a passing occluded front may also produce some strong-to-severe storms from New England on down along I-95 to the northern DelMarVa Peninsula.
Farther west, a lifting frontal system in the northern Plains will foster an environment for developing thunderstorms this afternoon.
The Northern Rockies may also see strong storms form, thanks to the upper trough coming ashore along the Pacific Northwest coast.
Pop-up showers and storms remain in the forecast across parts of the Northern Rockies and Plains on Saturday as the upper trough tracks farther inland.
There is a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall in parts of the interior Northwest where localized flash flooding is possible.
Meanwhile, the front surging south across the Southeast is set to help trigger additional heavy thunderstorms in Florida and parts of the Gulf Coast.
Excessive Rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding potential, prompting the issuance of a Marginal Risk for central Florida.
In the Southwest, early season monsoonal moisture will work its way north from Arizona and New Mexico on north into the central Rockies.
Throughout Father's Day weekend, daily rounds of diurnally driven thunderstorms tapping into anomalous atmospheric moisture levels will result in potent thunderstorms that contain heavy rainfall rates.
Flash flooding is possible in these parts of the Southwest and into the southern/central Rockies, which has prompted the issuance of daily Marginal Risks for Excessive Rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center each day this weekend.
Areas most prone to flash flooding are near residual burn scars across the Four Corners region on north into southern Wyoming.
Meanwhile, some thunderstorms may not contain much of any rainfall in parts of the Great Basin, resulting in dry thunderstorms.
These storms could ignite other wildfires in parts of southwest Wyoming, eastern Utah, and into the heart of the Four Corners region.
There is a Critical Risk for fire weather in the central Great Basin on south into the Lower Colorado River Valley today, as well as an Elevated Risk in the central High Plains.
The same threat areas are expected to continue (Critical risk in the Great Basin, Elevated Risk in the central High Plains) as strong winds, low humidity levels, and dry fuels are forecast to last into the first half of the weekend. ■