Shortwave energy will support the broad advection of moisture into the Southwest, Great Basin and Intermountain West over the next couple of days.
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Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms may lead to the potential for pockets of heavy rainfall, especially in areas that experience intense daytime convection today and on Wednesday.
These pockets of heavy rainfall are likely to develop over parts of southern Nevada, northeastern Utah, and eastern Arizona into western New Mexico today where slight risks (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall are in effect.
An embedded moderate risk (level 3/4) is in effect for parts of south-central/eastern Nevada, southwestern Utah and into northwestern Arizona today, as well.
The greatest potential for flash flooding shifts into parts of northern Utah to northwestern Colorado on Wednesday where another slight risk of excessive rainfall is in effect.
The aforementioned shortwave energy moving across the Rockies today will allow for ample warm air advection into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley this week, where highs in the 80s and 90s will be 15-20 degrees above average.
Clouds and rainfall will continue to contribute to below average high temperatures in the West.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to focus around a surface front moving through the Northeast today.
Some thunderstorms have the possibility of becoming severe, especially over parts of eastern New York and into western New England, where a slight risk of severe thunderstorms is in effect.
Damaging wind gusts, isolated hail and a brief tornado or two are possible this afternoon into the early evening.
A lingering shower or isolated thunderstorm is possible in the interior Northeast tonight into Wednesday morning on the backside of the system as the upper trough moves into the Canadian maritimes.
High temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below average in the Ohio Valley today, as northerly flow sends cooler air into the region.
Meanwhile, the southern portion of the coastal front will stall out just off the Gulf Coast and become the focus of convective activity across the region and the Florida peninsula over the next several days. ■