Heavy rainfall chances will continue to expand further into the Southeast the next couple days as an area of low pressure forms along a stationary front over the Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
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It should be noted that there still is spread amongst the models with how this system evolves, although there is a general consensus for areas of heavy rainfall over the Central Gulf Coast Wednesday spreading into the Southeast Thursday.
Generally, rainfall totals on the order of 1-3" (ocally higher could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, with corresponding Marginal Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 1/4) in effect.
On the eastern fringe of this system, persistent easterly onshore flow will also support continued daily thunderstorms with heavy rainfall over south Florida.
There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect for a locally higher threat for scattered instances of flash flooding persisting through late Tuesday and into Wednesday.
An upper-level trough over the Northwest with a pair of frontal systems at the surface will lead to continued chances for lower elevation coastal/valley rain and higher elevation snow over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
The focus will be on the Pacific Northwest Wednesday as moist, onshore flow precedes a Pacific cold front.
Light to moderate rainfall as well as some light accumulating snows at higher elevations of the Cascades can be expected.
As the trough moves eastward, precipitation chances will increase across the Northern Rockies as a second frontal system moves through the region and out into the Plains.
Locally heavy snow will be possible at higher elevations of the Northern Rockies Thursday, with the chance some light accumulations might spread into portions of the Northern High Plains.
Some showers and thunderstorms can also be expected ahead of this front later Thursday afternoon over portions of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest.
Meanwhile, outside of the more active weather in the Southeast and Northwest, well above average, anomalously warm temperatures have settled in Monday across much of the country as a potent upper-ridge migrates eastward toward the Central U.S.
High temperatures upwards of 30 to 40 degrees above average will continue Tuesday and Wednesday across portions of the Central Plains through the Upper Midwest as highs reach into the mid- to upper 80s.
Highs will also soar into the upper 70s and 80s in the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday, spreading into New England on Thursday.
Numerous stations across the Plains, Upper Midwest, and the Northeast could challenge their daily high temperature records.
The warm weather has sparked fire weather concerns across the Plains, where the Storm Prediction Center is highlighting an Elevated Risk of Fire Weather conditions (level 1/3) for Wednesday.
The cold front moving into the Plains will bring temperatures back to normal later this week/weekend, with temperatures dropping into the 40s starting in the Northern Plains Thursday. ■