Thunderstorms are likely to develop through this evening ahead a cold front tracking eastward into the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Valleys.
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Some severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Wisconsin into the middle Mississippi Valley and northeastern Texas along with localized flash flooding.
Farther east, diurnally driven thunderstorms across central and southern Florida will be capable of very heavy rain this evening along with a localized flash flood threat, mainly over any urban areas that will be prone to poor drainage.
As the cold front continues eastward on Sunday, rain and thunderstorms will spread eastward into the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and southeastern U.S., but the threat for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will be more localized when compared to today's threat.
However, the portion of the front over Texas will lift northward as a warm front during the day on Sunday, with a dryline extending southward through eastern New Mexico into western Texas from a surface low lifting north.
A return of moisture along with favorable upper level dynamics has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms over the Texas Panhandle, eastern New Mexico into portions of the Permian Basin.
Threats of tornadoes, large hail and damaging straight line winds will exist along with an evolving threat for flash flooding as storms track eastward Sunday night.
West of the dryline, conditions will be highly favorable for the spreading of wildfires as winds of 25 to 35 mph combine with low relative humidities over northern portions of Arizona into much of New Mexico with a reduced risk over the remainder of Arizona into portions of southern Nevada, Utah and Colorado.
The storm system will move eastward on Monday, spreading rain through the Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley along with some light snow accumulations for portions of western Nebraska.
A storm system is forecast to continue moving inland from the Northwest tonight, spreading rain and higher elevation snow across the Intermountain region of the western U.S. through Sunday, however precipitation totals are not expected to be very high.
Sunday night, a somewhat stronger system is expected to reach the Pacific Northwest which will usher in a cold front along with light to moderate rain for the Pacific Northwest and snow into the Cascades and some of the higher terrain of eastern Oregon into central Idaho. ■
Modified arctic air combined with a moisture-laden area of low pressure along the Gulf Coast will continue to allow for a broad area of winter weather impacts from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast today into early Saturday morning.