An active weekend of weather is in store for much of the central Plains and Southeast, as heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms are likely through Sunday.
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Today, several regions have been highlighted by a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall, as well as a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms by the Storm Prediction Center, including portions of eastern Colorado and western Kansas where damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible.
Heavy rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr embedded in developing thunderstorms will also be possible, which could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.
Further east, similar risks are present in parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast, where showers and thunderstorms initiating along a stationary boundary draped across the Mid-South will lead to another afternoon of possible damaging wind gusts, hail, and flash flooding.
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop this evening across the Mid-Atlantic as a surface low tracks through the region; however, the greatest threat, associated with a convective complex that produced severe wind gusts in New Jersey, has pushed offshore.
The flash flooding threat is expected to diminish on Saturday while severe weather continues across the Plains and Gulf Coast as two distinct surface fronts, one draped along the Deep South and the other moving through the Central and Southern Plains, will be the focus for developing thunderstorms.
As a result, an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for much of Oklahoma and parts of western Arkansas.
The primary threats are damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.
Potent cells are also forecast to initiate over the central Gulf Coast on Saturday afternoon and cause damaging wind gusts and hail over portions of coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida panhandle before moving offshore into the Gulf.
The flash flood and severe thunderstorm threat will continue into Sunday across the Mid-South as warm, moist Gulf air continues to surge northward behind a warm front, leading to further initiation of potent cells.
Elsewhere, a persistent and stationary upper-level ridge will remain over southern Texas and Mexico for the foreseeable future, generating record warmth over southern Texas through the weekend.
High temperatures approaching 100F - 110F in addition to dew points reaching and exceeding 70F will produce dangerous heat indices of 110F - 120F, resulting in widespread Heat Warnings and Advisories for the region.
Repeated and lengthy exposure to heat of this magnitude can lead to adverse health risks, so residents should decrease exposure by limiting outdoor activities and drinking plenty of fluids.
Further west, high pressure will build over the Front Range on the backside of the Great Plains system, leading to anomalously cool high temperatures for parts of the Northern/Central Plains/Rockies through Saturday.
Furthermore, dry and windy conditions will support critical fire weather threats over parts of southeastern Arizona and New Mexico this weekend.
Another upper-level low-pressure system moving through the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes will circulate Canadian wildfire smoke over the Midwest, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast this weekend, although it will be much less potent than last week. ■
A strong storm that originated over the Pacific has tracked through the Great Basin and is currently transitioning across the Rockies to redevelop across the central High Plains later today into early Saturday morning.