A very active weather pattern expected to continue over the next several days across the mid section of the nation.
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Heavy rains that have been focusing across eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas over the past few days will begin to diminish this evening as the disturbance responsible for the heavy rains pushes to the northeast.
There will be the potential for locally heavy rains across portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys as this disturbance affects these regions, but the expected progressive nature of the disturbance should keep precipitation totals from being as heavy as areas from eastern Texas into Arkansas have experienced.
While the heavy rain threat diminishes across eastern Texas to Arkansas, it will be increasing across large portions of the Plains.
Heavy rains will be associated with a strong mid to upper level low that will be pushing northward tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains on Saturday and into the Northern Plains on Sunday.
Heavy rains already developing early Thursday afternoon from western Kansas into eastern Colorado will continue to expand north and northeastward as the strong closed low moves northeastward.
This will produce an axis of heavy rains from northeast Colorado, across much of Nebraska, far eastern Wyoming, far eastern Montana, all of North and South Dakota, southwest Minnesota and northern Iowa.
This will be providing much needed rains to portions of the Central to Northern High Plains that are currently experiencing moderate to extreme drought conditions.
While these rains are much needed, the potential for a prolonged period of potentially heavy rains will pose a flash flood threat across these regions.
In addition to the heavy rain and flash flood potential across the Central to Northern Plains, severe thunderstorms are possible on the eastern side of this strong upper level low, stretching from North Texas, across Oklahoma, Kansas, eastern Colorado, eastern Nebraska, northwest Missouri, southeast South Dakota into western Iowa over the next two days.
Across these regions, large hail, high winds and tornadoes are possible.
Beginning Friday night another strong upper level system is expected to push northward from northeast Mexico and across western to central Texas and eastern New Mexico through the day on Saturday.
This next system will produce potential for another swath of heavy rains stretching from South to North Central Texas.
Similar to areas farther to the north across the Central and Northern Plains, these rains will be bringing some relief to widespread severe to extreme drought conditions affecting this area.
There will be the potential for more than one round of heavy rains across these regions, with some of the rain areas having the potential to be very slow moving.
This will lead to an increasing chance of flash flooding from late Friday night through the day on Saturday across these regions.
Similar to areas farther to the north, these heavy rains will also be accompanied by the potential for severe weather, with high winds and large hail the greatest threat.
While the middle section of the nation will be affected by strong upper level lows over the next few days, a building upper level high will be forming from northern California, across the Pacific Northwest and into southwestern Canada.
This will be leading to building heat across these areas where high temperatures are expected to be well above average from Friday, through the weekend and into next week.
There will be potential for some record high temperatures by Saturday across western Oregon and western Washington with this potential continuing into Sunday and Monday.
The only areas of below average temperatures over the next few days will be across the Plains where the heavy rain potential will limit sunshine and keep temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below average. ■