An unsettled pattern featuring showers and thunderstorms will continue across the South through the weekend as two frontal systems meander over the region.
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Focusing initially on the Mid-South, areas of showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead of a wave of low pressure in the Southern Plains and along a warm front lifting north through the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday evening.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms from eastern Oklahoma through Arkansas and into western Tennessee where large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible.
There is also a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for Excessive Rainfall from the Ozarks on east into the heart of the Mid-South where efficient downpours may produce up to 1.5"/hour rain rates leading to localized instances of flash flooding.
Flood Watches have also been issued for the area.
By Saturday, a cold front pushes through the East and the Deep South, with the latter having the best odds for witnessing strong-to-severe thunderstorms.
The SPC has an expansive Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for damaging winds and hail stretching from the Rio Grande on east to the Southeast coast.
There is a more localized Slight Risk from southeastern Arkansas through central Mississippi and into southwestern Alabama where more organized storms will pose a greater threat for damaging winds.
There is also a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall in the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday as storms are expected to continue to produce heavy downpours and may have a tendency to train over the same areas in the vicinity of the front, producing between 2-3 inches of rain.
While severe storms are less likely, a few thunderstorms could transpire along the I-95 corridor in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as the cold front traverses these regions Saturday afternoon.
Finally, for Sunday, a similar threat pattern exists with a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms over portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and a Marginal Risk for heavy rainfall from the Lower Mississippi Valley east through the South.
Organized thunderstorms will once again pose a threat for damaging winds and large hail, as well as potentially heavy downpours that may lead to additional rain totals between 2-3 inches in some locations.
Meanwhile, a Pacific storm system approaching the West Coast Friday afternoon will usher in periods of valley/coastal rain and mountain snow to northern California, the Sierra Nevada, and southern Oregon Friday night.
As the storm tracks inland on Saturday, the shield of precipitation will push into the northern Rockies where accumulating snowfall is also expected.
In terms of snowfall through early Easter Sunday morning, the heaviest totals will be found in the Sierra Nevada and the Shastas of northern California where up to a foot of snow is possible at higher elevations.
The Cascades will also pick up accumulations of 2 to 8 inches.
In the Rockies, the Bitterroots from Montana into Idaho as well as the Sawtooth mountains are forecast to receive 3-6 inches, locally higher.
The storm system will emerge into the Northern Plains on Sunday, bringing snow once again to eastern Montana through central North Dakota.
While the storm is not expected to be as intense as this past week's blizzard, snowfall totals between 4-6 inches, locally higher, are possible on Sunday.
More broadly temperature wise, a dome of Canadian high pressure has settled in over the Northern Plains.
Morning lows are forecast to be in the single digits Saturday morning and with highs struggling to break the freezing mark in parts of Montana and the Dakotas, making it feel more like mid-February rather than mid-April.
Below normal temperatures are also expected Saturday across the Central Plains and portions of the Southern Plains north of a cold front, with highs only in the 50s and and low 60s.
On the other hand, south of the cold front, South Texas will become quite hot Saturday with daytime highs approaching the century mark in the Rio Grande Valley.
Easter Sunday in the South will feel more like May with daytime highs in the 80s and 90s from Florida and the central Gulf Coast to the Southern Plains and Southwest.
A rapid warm up is expected over the previously cooler portions of the Southern and Central High Plains as well, with highs from the upper 60s to the low 80s compared to Saturday.
The warm and dry temperatures in the Southwest have promoted a Critical Risk of fire weather from the Storm Prediction Center for Saturday. ■