A strong upper-level jet streak will advance from the Southwest into the southern High Plains today.
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The core of this jet streak will extend from southeast New Mexico into southwest Kansas this afternoon with 500mb flow from 70 to 90 knots.
In addition, a strong surface low will deepen across western Kansas and move into northern Kansas by this evening.
This surface low will lead to strong surface winds in excess of 20 mph for most of the southern and Central Plains.
Even stronger winds are expected beneath this mid-level jet streak.
This jet streak will clear any residual cloud cover as it ejects into the Plains, which will allow for strong surface heating at the surface.
The environment across the TX Panhandle has very poor relative-humidity recovery this morning and the airmass remains well mixed.
Therefore, it won't take much heating for very deep mixing to occur and for some of this stronger flow to reach the surface.
Sustained winds in excess of 30 mph may begin by mid-morning with increasing winds and lowering relative humidity through the day.
By the afternoon, a broad region of 12 to 18 percent relative humidity and sustained winds of 35 to 40 mph with gusts 65 to 70 mph are expected from the Texas Panhandle into central Kansas.
Extremely critical meteorological conditions will likely extend as far as north-central Kansas, but fuels are somewhat less favorable with northern and eastern extent.
Expanded the elevated delineation as far east as 40 to 45 percent relative humidity.
Despite the higher relative humidity, winds will be sustained 25 to 30 mph.
Numerous fires have occurred in the past 48 hours, indicating fuels are sufficiently dry for large fire
pread.
A cold front will move through the extremely critical area between 06 and 10Z, which will lead to a 90 degree wind shift from southwest to northwest.
This will likely have a significant impact on any ongoing fires, especially considering sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected in the post-frontal airmass.
Elevated highlights were added for portions of the Florida Peninsula.
In addition, the Elevated and Critical areas over South Texas were expanded northward slightly.
Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
Across parts of southern and central Florida, breezy southeasterly surface winds of 15-20 mph (gusts up to 25 mph) are expected tomorrow/Wednesday.
While low-level moisture return may temper RH reductions to an extent, efficient diurnal heating/mixing across inland and western portions of the Peninsula could result in minimum afternoon RH of 30-40 percent.
The combination of the breezy boundary-layer winds, near-critical RH, and very dry fuels will support elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon hours.
Confidence in the development of elevated conditions is highest from Fort Myers northwestward toward Tampa Bay, where RH reductions should be maximized amid the breezy surface winds.
High-end critical conditions are still expected across South Texas tomorrow/Wednesday afternoon and early evening.
While RH reductions may be limited over the northern portions of the Elevated and Critical areas (i.e., 25-35 percent), sustained west-northwesterly surface winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) and very dry fuels should compensate for the marginal RH. ■