A Significant Winter Storm will develop over the Northern/Central Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Upper Great Lakes from Sunday evening into Tuesday.
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The winter storm will be high-impact and an extensive system producing widespread heavy snow and gusty winds that will persist throughout the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through Tuesday.
Heavy snow will spread across much of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Sunday and continue into Monday.
There is a high chance (greater than 70%) of at least eight inches of snow extending from northern Nebraska and central South Dakota northeastward to northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin.
In addition, the storm will create hazardous impacts from heavy snow, snow load, and wind.
Moreover, heavy snow and gusty wind will produce areas of blowing/drifting snow and possible blizzard conditions on Sunday into Monday.
Likewise, hazardous travel and road closures are expected late Sunday into Monday.
Strong winds and heavy, wet snow on trees and power lines may damage trees and cause power outages.
Also, there will be a broad area of light rain/freezing rain over parts of the Central Plains into the Upper Great Lakes.
Furthermore, strong wind gusts over 50 mph on Sunday may result in power outages, blowing dust with reduced visibility, difficult travel, and property damage as High Wind Watches and Warnings are over the Central/Southern Plains.
Further, with the high wind, critical fire weather conditions are forecast for Sunday over the Southern High Plains.
Meanwhile, the front associated with the storm extends from Central/Southern Plains and moves eastward to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening.
As the front and dryline move out of the Rockies, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over the Central/Southern Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains through Monday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
On Monday, the front moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley, creating showers and severe thunderstorms.
Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley from Monday into Tuesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Additionally, there is an increased threat of EF2 to EF5 tornados over the area.
In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts of the Central/Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys from Monday into Tuesday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.
By Tuesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms decreases slightly to a Marginal Risk over parts of the Ohio Valley, with a second area over parts of the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast.
Similarly, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts of the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast on Tuesday.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.
In the wake of the storm, under an upper-level low, lower-elevation rain and higher elevation snow will extend from the Pacific Northwest to California, Southwest, and Southern Rockies through Monday morning.
On Monday, the precipitation mostly ends over California.
However, a surge of energy moving into the Northwest will aid in producing rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of Northern California on Monday afternoon into late evening.
The energy will also create coastal rain and higher�elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday afternoon.
Moreover, higher-elevation snow will continue from the Northern Intermountain Region, Great Basin, Southwest, and Southern Rockies through Tuesday evening. ■