A low pressure system moving eastward through southern Ontario will continue to deliver mixed precipitation across northern New England and heavy snow across northern Maine today.
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Mixed wintry precipitation is expected to taper off and change over to light snow by tonight following a cold frontal passage.
Some lake-effect snow is forecast to linger a bit longer in areas downwind from the lower Great Lakes into Saturday morning before drier air arrives from the west.
To the south of the wintry weather, temperatures have been very warm, with widespread record high maximum temperatures occurring along the entire East Coast.
Southerly flow ahead of an incoming cold front is ushering in warm and moist air, creating spring-like conditions across the East Coast.
Much of the East Coast will be noticeably cooler tonight following a cold frontal passage.
However, temperatures will still be above average by February standards.
Meanwhile, a strengthening low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico will begin to set the stage for increasingly stormy weather across the Southeast, including some wet snow and/or sleet for portions of the southern and central Appalachians.
Southerly flow aloft will transport moisture toward the Gulf Coast, and with the primary front expected to stall over the Gulf, prolonged rain is in store for much of the Southeast.
The initial threat of heavy rain will be confined to the Florida Panhandle.
However, as an upper low moves toward the lower Mississippi Valley today, moist low level flow will strengthen out of southwest and south off the central to eastern Gulf of Mexico, supporting an expanding area of heavy rainfall rates from the central Gulf coast northeastward.
Areas of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southern Georgia, and southern South Carolina will be wet in the short term.
This is welcome precipitation, as much of this region has seen average to below average precipitation amounts over the past few weeks.
Dry antecedent soil should help to mitigate some flash flood potential.
However, WPC has issued a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for portions of the central Florida Panhandle and into far southern Georgia, where high rainfall rates are currently occurring and storm-total precipitation may exceed 4-5".
By Saturday evening and into early Sunday, the low pressure system is forecast to move across northern Florida into the Atlantic Ocean while it continues to intensify.
Heavy rain, strengthening winds, and possibly severe thunderstorms are expected to expand across the Southeast beginning on Saturday along with the low pressure system.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Florida Panhandle on Saturday.
The primary threat from these thunderstorms is expected to be damaging wind gusts.
As the system continues to move along the East Coast, heavy wet snow and/or sleet is expected to develop near/over the central and southern Appalachians.
Given the dynamic nature of this system and the moderate airmass in place, accumulating snowfall may be limited to the upslope regions of the Appalachian Mountains, where there is a 50-80% chance of snow accumulating 4"+.
In addition to the snow, warm air aloft will bring a risk of icing over portions of the interior Mid-Atlantic, particularly over the central and southern Appalachian Mountains.
WPC has issued a 30-50% probability of 0.1" of ice accretion over northwestern North Carolina and into southwestern Virginia.
A strong storm system is currently pushing southward through northern and central California today.
Despite being a strong system, the track of this deepening mid to upper level closed low will not be conducive to significant precipitation across California over the next few days.
Moisture values will remain at or below seasonal averages.
Subsequently, only light to locally moderate precipitation amounts in the .10-.25"+ range expected across northern to central California over the next two days.
This system will settle into the Southwest United States, with more significant impacts expected in the medium range over the southern and central Plains. ■