The second half of the week continues to be headlined by a seemingly never ending fire hose of monsoonal and Gulf of Mexico moisture that is producing a conveyor belt of heavy rain and thunderstorms from the Southwest to the central Appalachians.
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After multiple days worth of heavy rainfall in parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and central Appalachians, the prospect of additional heavy rain and thunderstorms makes these regions more vulnerable to flash flooding, as well as rising creeks, streams, and rivers.
The steady onslaught of rich atmospheric moisture and potential for training thunderstorms makes it likely that additional flash flooding is anticipated in these areas.
As a result, a Moderate Risk (threat level 3/4) is in place for eastern Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and far southwest Virginia.
It is here where flash flooding is not only likely to unfold at times today, but flash flooding could be significant to even life-threatening in spots.
The threat for flash flooding extends as far west as the Middle Mississippi Valley and as far east as the central Appalachians where Excessive Rainfall rates may lead to flash flooding in these areas as well.
By Friday, a cold front approaching from the north will push this conveyor belt of rain and thunderstorms a little farther south into the heart of the Mid-South, but parts of West Virginia, eastern Kentucky, and southwest Virginia remain under a Moderate Risk for flash flooding.
Farther west, the Southwest and southern High Plains will contend with their own deluge of heavy rain and thunderstorms thanks to the steady influx of rich monsoonal moisture being fed directly into the region.
Daily episodes of strong thunderstorms containing heavy downpours atop areas with increasingly saturated soils are ripe for potential flash flooding.
Locations most at risk for flash flooding are in/near burn scars, within slot canyons, and within more urbanized communities.
The region perhaps with the most favorable setup for flash flooding is in the southern Rockies and High Plains, where a stalled frontal boundary and copious amounts of atmospheric moisture will result in slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing Excessive Rainfall rates.
A Moderate Risk for flash flooding has been issued in southern Colorado, northern New Mexico, and portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles where potentially significant flash flooding is possible.
A Moderate Risk for flash flooding is also out for parts of southeast Colorado, southwest Kansas, and the Oklahoma Panhandle on Friday.
Slight Risks (threat level 2/4) for flash flooding likely continue to be in the forecast for parts of Arizona and New Mexico into the upcoming weekend.
Regarding the temperature forecast across the CONUS, a pair of upper level ridges; one in the Pacific Northwest and one off the Southeast coast, are responsible for sultry conditions in the Northwest and Southeast.
The most anomalously hot conditions will be in the Pacific Northwest where a heat wave is forecast to continue through the end of the week.
High temps from the Columbia Basin on south into central Oregon and far northern California will soar into the triple digits.
Highs temps in and around the Seattle and Portland metro areas look to routinely hit the mid 90s and even make a run at the century mark through Saturday.
Daily record highs will likely be broken throughout the Northwest as daytime highs range between 20-25 degrees above normal.
In the Southeast, the hottest temperature departures will be most commonly found in the Carolinas on south into Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
High temps will still make a run at triple digits in the Southern Plains as well.
In addition, daytime minimum temps remain quite warm with record warm minimums possible across the South through Saturday morning.
The coolest temperature anomalies the second half of the week are set to be in the Central Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes. ■
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