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Gas and renewables will be quickest route to decarbonized energy, DNV GL

Christian Fernsby |
Gas and variable renewables will be the only energy sources for which demand is higher in 2050 than today.

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Topics: GAS    RENEWABLES    ENERGY   

However, they must work together alongside greater uptake of carbon capture and storage (CCS) to secure a rapid energy transition, according to a new forecast of the energy transition by DNV GL.

The 2019 Energy Transition Outlook provides an independent forecast of developments in the world energy mix to 2050.

By this time, gas will account for nearly 30% of the global energy supply, providing the world with a base of secure and affordable energy, and with manufacturing feedstock.

DNV GL’s Outlook reveals there is no single pathway to a decarbonized energy mix.

A combination of energy sources – primarily gas and renewables – will be the quickest route to delivering a supply of affordable, decarbonized energy in the lead-up to mid-century.

Gas will increasingly complement variable renewables, meeting demand in peak periods such as winter in colder climates.

As gas secures its place as the world’s largest energy source from the middle of the next decade, its production and consumption must be decarbonized to help achieve national and international targets for climate change mitigation.

CCS – the only currently-available technology to deeply decarbonize hydrocarbon use – will not be employed at-scale until the 2040s unless governments develop and enact more definitive policies on its use, according to the Energy Transition Outlook.

According to DNV GL’s analysis, global oil demand will peak in the mid-2020s and gas demand will keep rising to 2033.

Gas demand will then plateau, and the fuel will remain dominant until the end of the forecast period in 2050, when it will account for over 29% of the world’s energy supply.

Significant investment will be required to ensure production meets demand, including realising the potential from stranded gas reserves and for reserve replacement.

DNV GL forecasts global upstream gas capital expenditure to reach USD 737 billion (bn) in 2025, and USD 587 bn in 2050.


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