Global productivity fell in 2020 but it will recover through 2021, according to the latest release of annual productivity growth rates for 131 countries by The Conference Board.
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Globally, growth in output per worker fell 0.9 percent in 2020 after rising 1.0 percent in 2019, but is projected to rebound to 2.9 percent growth in 2021.
These productivity improvements are unlikely to be sustained, however, as they are driven by the global economy reopening amid a waning pandemic.
The latest estimates extend the downward trend in global labor productivity growth from an average annual rate of 2.6 percent between 2000-2007 to 1.7 percent between 2011-2019.
The latter is roughly the same as the average growth rate of output per worker in 2019-2021.
Among the world's mature economies, the long-term productivity slowdown appears to have hit bottom, with further deterioration unlikely but also no clear signs of a revival yet.
Emerging markets still have a substantial productivity growth advantage over mature economies.
However, overall productivity growth rates in emerging markets have been slowing since 2010, and this downward trajectory should continue in the post-pandemic period.
In the United States, growth in output per hour accelerated to 2.5 percent in 2020 compared to 1.3 percent in 2019—driven by the deep and sudden pandemic downturn early last year. Growth in hourly output slowed from +2.2 percent in 2000-07 to +0.7 percent in 2011-19.
In the Euro Area, 2020 was an exceptionally weak year for productivity growth, driven by the pandemic recession. Hourly output grew by +0.8 percent in 2020, above 2019's +0.4 percent but comparable to the 2011-2019 average of +0.7 percent.
Output per hour in the United Kingdom has remained stagnant over the past three years, at +0.4 percent in 2018, unchanged in 2019, and +0.4 percent in 2020.
Among the eight largest emerging markets (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and Turkey), growth in output per worker slowed from +5.2 percent between 2000-2007 to +3.5 percent between 2011-2019. ■